2024 Global Crop Protection Market Review and 2025 Outlook

This report provides AgbioInvestor's preliminary assessment of the global crop protection market in 2024. This represents estimated sales of products at the ex-manufacturer level, i.e. product moving from manufacturers into the first stage of distribution, but expressed at the ex-manufacturer value as used on the ground in the specific agricultural year. Unless otherwise specified, values are expressed in US dollars, with currency conversion using average year exchange rates.

Note: 2024P signifies preliminary market data representing AgbioInvestor’s understanding as of January 2025

As shown in the above table, our preliminary view of the global agrochemical market in 2024 reflects a year-on-year decline of 6.4% to $70,061 million, the first year-on-year decline in value terms since 2016. The chart below outlines the impact of volume, price, and currency on market development in recent years:

Crop Protection Market Development: Volume/Price/Currency Impacts

In 2024, AgbioInvestor estimates that the volume of crop protection products applied declined by 3.4% compared to the prior year, largely impacted by unfavourable weather conditions in certain markets, affecting Asia, parts of South America, and key cereal growing regions of Europe in particular. 

Prices declined for the second consecutive year, with low ex-factory prices from China impacting southern hemisphere country markets in this crop year. Generally high inventory levels also had a dampening effect on prices.

The Global Crop Protection Market 2024

The most significant factors which affected crop protection market performance in 2024 were:

• Low agrochemical prices, with significant effects felt in southern hemisphere in 2024 (ag year Jul 2023 – Jun 2024).

• Lower maize areas in the key markets of the US and Brazil.

• Unfavourable ag economics (high cost of borrowing, declining commodity prices, high input costs).

• Unfavourable weather conditions had significant impacts in several key crop and country markets:

• Winter cereals in Europe.

• Brazil soybean crop impacted by unfavourable weather conditions in southern regions, delaying harvest.

• Erratic monsoon in India.

• Hot and dry conditions in Australia and China. 

• Poor weather in Russia required significant areas to be replanted.

• High inventories in most regions holding back price improvement and affecting producers/suppliers of crop protection products.

Indications from available data suggest that the value of the herbicides market is continuing to be impacted by very low prices for key products, notably the widely used non-selectives glyphosate and glufosinate. These price declines were also felt in the southern hemisphere, where the prior ag year had not been as badly affected due to seasonal timings of application.

For insecticides, low pest pressure in key markets, notably India, is expected to have held back growth; however, pest pressure in China was reported at high levels. The higher soybean area in Brazil, a significant market for insecticides, is also expected to have benefited the sector. In Argentina, the confirmed presence of African leafhopper, which can act as a vector for the pathogen responsible for corn stunt disease, may have boosted insecticide use as growers attempt to limit the impacts to yield. 

Dry conditions in areas of Brazil are expected to have limited disease pressure, whilst unfavourable weather conditions in much of the key cereal producing regions in Europe is also a negative for the development of the fungicides market.

Crop Protection Overview and 2025 Outlook

The crop protection market experienced a sharp decline in value terms in 2024, impacted by the continuing effects of low agrochemical prices, unfavourable agricultural economics based on low commodity prices and high input costs, lower areas of key crops in certain markets (notably US and Brazil maize), and unfavourable weather conditions in several key regions, including cereal areas in Europe and large parts of Asia Pacific.

However, the market in 2025 can be expected to be more favourable, with agrochemical prices stabilising and improved weather conditions in Europe, Asia, and Brazil. It can be expected that company performance in 2025 will benefit from a more stable inventory situation, with company sales in recent years being hampered by high supplies in many regions.

The key factors behind the assumptions for a more stable market in 2025 are:

• Stable agrochemical prices.

• Improved weather conditions (Europe, Asia, Brazil).

• Higher maize area in US and soybean area in Brazil.

• Normalisation of inventory levels, particularly in North America and Europe.

• Continued growth from recent, novel active ingredient introductions.

North America

• Challenging farm economics

• Low commodity prices

• Difficulty in accessing credit

• High cost of debt

• Improving inventory situation, switch to just-in-time purchasing

• Higher maize, area in US, but reduction for soybean

• Increased wheat area in Canada.

• Expectations for higher canola area in Canada to meet high crushing demand.

Central & South America

• Total planted area in Brazil expected to be up by 1.8%

• Soybean area up by 2.6%, although slight decline expected for maize.

• Maize production expected to rebound from effects of delayed safrinha crop last year when weather impacted the soybean harvest.

• Agrochemical pricing remains low, but worst effects of recent declines expected to be over.

• Brazil continues to benefit from position as preferred supplier of key crop commodities to China.

Asia Pacific

• Continuing to be hampered by low agrochemical pricing.

• Improved weather conditions in key markets expected to benefit market, notably India.

• Continued expansion in developing markets.

A recent decision by the European Parliament to reject maximum residue levels for crop protection active ingredients currently banned for use in the EU could also benefit market development in countries where produce is exported to the EU, including in Asia Pacific. This could shift product usage away from older low-cost active ingredients, such as mancozeb and chlorpyrifos, as well as recent examples such as cyproconazole and spirodiclofen, to EU-approved active ingredients, potentially to the overall benefit of market value as it will often be the case that replacement of a banned active ingredient will occur with a newer, typically higher priced, alternative.

Europe

• Improved weather conditions in key cereal growing regions.

• Weather-impacted output in 2024 can be expected to limit crop availability and provide solidity to crop commodity prices going forward.

• Declining agrochemical pricing a negative, although the impacts in Europe are less than in many other regions. 

• Costs in Europe have been affected by a myriad of factors, primarily high energy costs. 

• Further growth from new product introductions, including:

• Bixlozone – novel mode of action for grass weed control in cereals

• Cinmethylin – novel mode of action for cereals, including control of resistant blackgrass.

• Mefentrifluconazole – first isopropanol-azole, effective against triazole resistant diseases, including Septoria in wheat.

• Fenpicoxamid – picolinamide fungicide derived from natural compound, introduced in cereals and fruit & vegetables.

Middle East & Africa

Recent decision by the European Parliament to reject maximum residue levels for crop protection active ingredients currently banned for use in the EU could benefit market development in many African countries, where crop production for export to the EU is widespread. This could shift product usage away from older low-cost active ingredients to EU-approved active ingredients, potentially to the overall benefit of market value. This also makes African markets potential targets for new product introductions, e.g. BASF recently launched the new insecticide Cimegra SC (broflanilide) in Zambia for the control of fall armyworm in maize. 

Recently developing La Niña conditions are expected to lead to below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa. Conversely, above-average rainfall would be more likely in Southern Africa.

This article was published in the magazine of 2024 Annual Review. Follow this magazine to read more articles/stories.