IGC raises forecast for 2016-17 global grains crop

The International Grains Council on Thursday raised its forecast for the global grains crop in 2016-17 partly due to improved outlooks for corn crops in Brazil and Mexico and wheat production in Australia.

The IGC, in a monthly report, put total grains production at 2.102 billion tonnes, up eight million from the previous month’s projection and well above the prior season’s 2.006 billion.

“Australia accounts for much of this month’s adjustment, including record harvests of wheat and barley, while prospects for maize (corn) improved in South America,” the IGC said.

The IGC said much of the increase in production was absorbed by higher expected consumption.

Stocks at the end of the season were forecast to reach 508 million tonnes, up just one million from the previous projection but 33 million tonnes higher than a year earlier.

World wheat production in 2016-17 is seen at 752 million, unchanged from the previous forecast, with an upward revision for Australia offset by a diminished outlook for Kazakhstan.

The IGC raised its forecast for the global corn crop in 2016-17 by four million tonnes to 1.049 billion tonnes, partly reflecting a higher forecast for Brazil (87.4 million versus 85.4 million) and Mexico (26 million versus 24.5 million).

The outlook for the 2017-18 wheat crop was seen mostly favourable with only a small year-on-year decline of about two percent anticipated.

The IGC raised its forecast for world soybean production in 2016-17 by two million tonnes to an all-time peak of 336 million tonnes owing to improved weather in South America.

“In addition to record crops in the U.S. and Brazil, better harvests are anticipated across a range of relatively small producers, including China, India and Ukraine,” the IGC said.