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USDA raises already-record soybean crop forecast
Oct. 13, 2016
The already-record outlook for the U.S. soybean harvest was increased again on Wednesday as the crop benefited from timely rains throughout August.
The United States Department of Agriculture in its monthly supply and demand report trimmed its corn production view as expected, but said that the harvest would still be a record.
USDA said the soybean harvest for the 2016-17 marketing year would come in at 4.269 billion bushels, up from its September outlook for 4.201 billion bu.
However, the USDA’s forecast was a little lower than the average of analysts estimates and so soybean futures were a little higher following the report.
USDA raised the average soybean yield to 51.4 bu. per acre from 50.6 bu. per acre.
Corn production was seen at 15.057 billion bu. , with the average yield pegged at 173.4 bu. per acre. A month ago, USDA had forecast corn production at 15.093 billion bu. and yields at 174.4 bu. per acre.
Analysts had been expecting the report to point to a soybean crop of 4.286 billion bu., based on an average yield of 51.5 bu. per acre, according to the average of estimates given in a Reuters poll.
Market watchers also had expected the report to show a corn crop of 15.060 billion bu. , with an average yield of 173.5 bu. per acre.
Expectations for bumper harvests have weighed on corn and soybean prices for months. Soybean futures have sagged 21 percent from their 2016 peak hit during mid-June while corn has fallen 22 percent during the same time period.
USDA also pegged domestic corn ending stocks for 2016/17 at 2.320 billion bu., compared to its September estimate of 2.384 billion bu. .
Soybean ending stocks were seen at 395 million bu., up from the September estimate of 365 million bu., the USDA said.
It forecast wheat ending stocks of 1.138 billion bu. , an increase from 1.100 billion bu. in September.
Analysts had been expecting corn ending stocks of 2.359 billion bu., soybean ending stocks of 413 million bu. and wheat ending stocks of 1.153 billion bu. .
Source: THE WESTERN PRODUCER
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