EU dryness 'worrisome' for crops, analyst warns

Strategie Grains heightened concerns over the danger to European crops from "worrisome" weather even as it downgraded estimates for the region's grains harvest to account for the last threat cold.

The influential analysis group warned that "with a severe drought already affecting Spain and Portugal and other countries in west Europe facing drought warnings, the weather outlook is worrisome".

"Yield potentials could be very negatively impacted if rains do not materialise soon," with prospects worsened in many areas by the "fragile" condition of plants "as the winterkill was greater than normal and as groundwater reserves have suffered from the 2011 drought".

The alert extended a series of cautions over the risk to crops posed by a dry spell which has seen parts of Spain go without rain since November, and the UK's important cereals growing region of East Anglia suffer its driest winter on record.

'Potentially severe drought'

Indeed, a belt running from Norway through eastern UK, France, Spain and Portugal received less than 25% of normal rainfall last month, data from official US meteorologists shows.

With much of Germany receiving less than 50% of normal rainfall too, that puts crops in Europe's top-three wheat producing states under threat.

"The water deficit in western Europe and in North Africa is concerning operators," Paris-based consultancy Agritel said.

Feed industry group Fefac warned late on Wednesday that "fear of a potentially severe drought in western Europe is growing".

Winterkill damage

Strategie Grains made its comments as, cutting by 1.6m tonnes to 131.1m tonnes its forecast for the European Union soft wheat harvest this year, it reversed on an earlier assessment that a February cold snap in Europe had caused minimal damage to winter grains.

France, where winterkill had hit 5-20% of winter grains area, had sustained losses on a scale "highly unusual" in the country.

"The losses can be attributed to the very exceptional circumstances so far this crop year, abnormally mild weather through the autumn and early winter and then the late plummeting of the mercury," the group said.

The comments contrasted with an assessment last month "that, in most countries, the freezing conditions will not lead to more significant winter crop losses than experienced in a normal year".

Comparison with other forecasts

Earlier this week, Agritel estimated the losses in France alone at 1.9m tonnes, saying winterkill damage to autumn-sown grades had proved "greater than the first estimates, particularly in soft wheat".

The Strategie Grains forecast leaves a rise in Europe's soft wheat harvest on the cards, despite a drop expected in harvested area, with the average yield pegged at 5.8 tonnes per hectare, up from the 5.6 tonnes per hectare last year, when western Europe also suffered an unusually dry spring.

However, its forecast is lower than the European Union's official estimate of 133.0m tonnes, unveiled last month.

Huge corn sowings

For barley, Strategie Grains downgraded its harvest estimate by 1.2m tonnes to 53.4m tonnes but, with a rise in area still on the cards compared with last year, a rise in production remained in prospect.

For corn, Strategie Grains upgraded by 2.0m tonnes to 64.6m tonnes its production forecast, a revision reflecting ideas that farmers losing winter grains will reseed in the spring.

Indeed, EU corn area was pegged at a bumper 9.3m hectares, up 400,000 hectares from last year, when the region notched up a record harvest.

Overall grains output was estimated at 288.3m tonnes, down 900,000 tonnes on the February figure, but representing a 3.4m-tonne rise year on year.