2023/24 Argentina soybeans impacted by hot and dry conditions

Last week was generally dry in Argentina with increasing temperatures. Over the weekend it was even hotter with temperatures of 38 to 49°C (104 to 108°F) with rainfall favoring parts of Cordoba and Buenos Aires. Showers are forecasted to build across central and southern Argentina later this week which should improve soil moisture for crops. Before the rain arrives, temperatures will again be in the range of 38 to 41°C (100 to 106°F).

The forecasted rains will be critical to maintaining current yield projections because the crops are in the critical reproduction phase. Soybeans for example were 14% filling pods as of late last week. Moisture stress is already being reported in northern La Pampa and western Buenos Aires and the percentage of the soybean crop rated good/excellent declined 8% last week to 36%.

The 2023/24 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 52.0 million tons, but if the forecasted rains end up with disappointing volumes or poor coverage, the estimate will start to head lower.

The soybeans in Argentina were rated 14% poor/very poor, 50% fair, and 36% good/excellent as of late last week. The good/excellent percentage was down 8% compared to the prior week. The soil moisture for the soybeans was rated 23% short/very short and 77% favorable/optimum. The favorable/optimum percentage was down 13% from the prior week. Below is the soybean condition rating from the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

2022/23 Argentina Soybean Ratings*

*Source: Buenos Aires Grain Exchange – Crop Condition & Development Stages