USDA anticipates 92 million acres of corn, 88 million acres of soybeans

By Jenna Hoffman

USDA’s 2022 Ag Outlook Forum opened on Thursday with the agency predicting farmers will plant 92 million acres of corn, which is slightly lower than a year ago. Soybean acres are projected to hit 88 million acres, up 0.8 million acres from last year.

Wheat area is above a year ago with increases for both winter and spring wheat and at 48 million acres would be the highest since 2016.

"High prices support a slight increase in the combined area of corn, soybeans, and wheat relative to a year ago," says Seth Meyer, USDA's chief economist. "However, favorable prices for competing crops such as cotton and other minor grains and oilseeds will likely limit this expansion."

Combined corn and soybean area is forecast at 180 million acres, below the historical high of 180.6 million planted in 2021.

According to USDA, corn used for ethanol is projected up 75 million bushels, “based on expectations of growth in motor gasoline consumption,” despite the push for electric vehicles.

The agency anticipates corn exports to drop 75 million bushels to 2.350 billion, as competition from other exporters linger into the growing season—regardless of continued “robust demand” from China.

Corn	Area Planted (mil. ac.)	Area Harvest (mil. ac.)	Yield (bu./ac.)	Production (mil. bu.)	Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.)
2021	93.4	85.4	177	15,115	$5.45
2022	92.0	84.2	181	15,240	$5.00

Soybean exports in 2022 are likely to hit 2.15 billion bushels. USDA says the increase of 100 million is in part due to the current drought in South America. However, the agency anticipates South America will recover export competition by the second half of the marketing year.  

Soybean	Area Planted (mil. ac.)	Area Harvest (mil. ac.)	Yield (bu./ac.)	Production (mil. bu.)	Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.)
2021	87.2	86.3	51.4	4,435	$13.00
2022	88.0	87.2	51.5	4,490	$12.75

Wheat acres are up a 1.3% from last year. However, USDA says the domestic wheat use is lower on reduced feed and residual use because corn will be priced “more competitively” and used as an alternative.

Wheat	Area Planted (mil. ac.)	Area Harvest (mil. ac.)	Yield (bu./ac.)	Production (mil. bu.)	Season-avg. farm price ($/bu.)
2021	46.7	37.2	44.3	1,646	$7.30
2022	48.0	39.5	49.1	1,940	$6.80

In cotton, USDA anticipates a decrease in cotton prices by 11% this year compared to 2022. The agency attributes the price flux to an increase in production of acres baled, due to investments in textiles that will “help alleviate” logistical issues in 2022.

Cotton	Area Planted (mil. ac.)	Area Harvest (mil. ac.)	Yield (bu./ac.)	Production (mil. bales)	Season-avg. farm price (¢/lb.)
2021	11.2	9.97	849	17.6	90¢
2022	12.7	10.20	856	18.2	80¢

"The long-term outlook for U.S. agriculture remains favorable, characterized by continued productivity growth and strong demand," Meyer says. "China has returned to become one of our leading markets as trade tensions have eased, purchasing substantial amounts of U.S. grains, oilseeds, meat, and cotton."