Aug. 12, 2019
Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
The combination of a deepening trade dispute between the United States and China and a weaker Brazilian currency has led to improved prices for Brazilian soybean producers. Over the past week, soybean prices at Brazilian ports have increased R$ 5.00 per sack (approximately $0.60 per bushel) from R$ 78.00 per sack to R$ 83.00 per sack (approximately $9.10 to $9.67 per bushel).
Premiums at Brazilian ports have also increased with some as high as $1.25 per bushel over the price at the Chicago Board of Trade.
These prices are coming at a time when Brazilian farmers have already purchased most of their inputs for the upcoming planting season which will start in about 30 days. Farmers in the state of Parana will start plating soybeans on September 11th if the conditions are suitable. In the state of Mato Grosso and other parts of central Brazil, they will start planting soybeans on September 16th, also if the conditions permit.
The value of the Brazilian currency has been fluxating wildly over the past few months depending on the daily news about the trade dispute and also due to the debate in the Brazilian Congress concerning reforms of Brazil's pension system. At one point earlier this week, the Brazilian real was trading at 4 reals to the dollar. The combination of a weaker currency and higher premiums is very good news for Brazilian soybean farmers.
Even though the 2019 soybean planting in the U.S. was historically slow, the market has had a muted response due to the uncertainties surrounding soybean sales to China. If the 2019 U.S. soybean crop does not have cooperative weather during August and early September, soybean prices could move higher, which should also lift soybean prices in Brazil as well.