Brazil's 2012-13 cotton production forecast at 8.3 million bales

Date:04-11-2012

Post forecasts 2012/13 cotton area will decrease to 1.250 million hectares, or a reduction of 10 per cent compared to 2011/12, and produce 8.3 million bales based on a yield trend of 1.45 mt/ha.

Increased forecasts in global and domestic stocks have resulted in lower futures prices and are expected to reduce the participation of smaller cotton producers next year. Large-scale producers have invested heavily in production and ginning equipment and as such, will maintain cotton area in their crop rotation schemes.

However, in 2012/13 it is estimated that in total 150,000 hectares will shift away from cotton to soybeans which carry less risk and currently have higher potential marginal returns.

Brazil continues to be deficit in fertiliser production. Studies show that Brazil's dependence on imports reaches 65, 50, and 90 per cent for nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, respectively.

According to the National Fertiliser Association (ANDA), fertiliser deliveries totaled 28.3 mmt in 2011, up over 15 per cent from 2010. Total annual imports of fertilizer in 2011 reached 19.8 mmt, up nearly 30 per cent from 2010.

National cotton production in 2011 reached 9.7 mmt, up 5.5 percent from the 9.3 mmt produced in 2010. For 2012/13 fertilizer usage is expected to increase due to significant forward purchases of fertilizer.

Biotech cotton seed use estimated to reach 40 per cent in 2012/13

Brazil's National Technical Commission of Biosafety (CTNBio) has approved nine biotech cotton events for commercial use. The single event varieties include: Bollgard (Bt1), Roundup Ready (RR1), Liberty Link (LL) and Widestrike. However, these single-event genetically-engineered (GE) varieties do not provide broad protection against regionally specific pests and disease.

There are very limited quantities of the only approved double-stacked trait variety Roundup Ready Bollgard cotton (RR1XBt1).

Sources confirm biotechnology adoption for cotton in Brazil should reach 40 per cent in 2012/13, mostly Liberty Link, compared to 60-80 per cent in most other cotton producing countries. It is estimated that the use of genetically engineered cotton only reached 25 per cent of total planted area in 2011/12.