Authoritative Release: Forecast of Major Pest and Disease Outbreaks in China for 2025, Anticipating High Prevalence of Wheat Scab

Date:11-29-2024

On November 22, the 38th China Plant Protection Information Exchange & Pesticide and Sprayer Facilities Fair was inaugurated. During the event, experts from the Pest Control Division of the National Agro-Tech Extension and Service Center released authoritative information regarding plant protection and quarantine for the 2024-2025 period in China. Below is a summary of the projected trends for major pests and diseases that may affect key crops in 2025.

Forecast of plant pest and disease outbreaks

Red imported fire ant

It is anticipated that the spread of the red imported fire ant will decelerate in 2025; however, the areas affected will remain extensive. This pest is expected to be prevalent across most regions of South China and Jiangnan Region, with sporadic occurrences noted in Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The risk of invasion is increasing in southern Jiangsu and southern Anhui. 

The estimated affected area nationwide is approximately 6 million mu, with a cumulative control area exceeding 15 million mu.

Citrus Huanglongbing (HLB)

HLB is projected to continue its northward and westward expansion in 2025, impacting most regions in South China, Southwest China, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. There will be localized concern for worsening conditions in the citrus producing areas of northern Guangxi, southern Hu’nan, and southern Jiangxi. The distribution of the citrus psyllid is expected to expand northward into Chongqing, Hubei, northern and central Sichuan, and northern Hu’nan. The risk of pathogen and psyllid transmission through seedlings is rising, necessitating enhanced preventive strategies. 

The estimated affected area nationwide is over 2 million mu, with the area requiring control of the citrus psyllid exceeding 32 million mu cumulatively.

Soybean phytophthora root rot

In 2025, an increase in soybean Phytophthora root rot cases is predicted, particularly in parts of Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. The risk of pathogen spread to new growing regions in the Huanghuaihai Region and Northwest China is of increasing concern and warrants careful monitoring. 

The estimated area affected by Phytophthora root rot throughout the year is around 300,000 mu, with a cumulative control area of 1 million mu.

Pear fire blight

Pear fire blight is expected to persist in localized areas within apple and pear production zones in Northwest China in 2025. Asian pear fire blight may also emerge in partial regions of the apple and pear production areas of the Yangtze River basin. 

The estimated affected area nationwide is approximately 200,000 mu, with a cumulative control area of 1 million mu.

Forecast of major pest and disease trends in grain and oilseed crops

In 2025, a resurgence of major pests and diseases affecting wheat, rice, corn, potatoes, soybeans, and rapeseed is predicted. The cumulative area affected by these significant pests and diseases in grain and oilseed crops is projected to reach 3.45 billion mu, marking an 8% increase compared to 2024 and a 6% rise compared to the average from 2019 to 2023. Over 70% of grain and oilseed crop growing areas will face threats.

Key pests and diseases of concern:

Wheat: Scab, stripe rust, sheath blight, fusarium crown rot, aphids;

Rice: Striped stem borer, rice planthopper, rice leaf folder, sheath blight, rice blast, rice false smut;

Corn: Fall armyworm, armyworm (Mythimna separata), Helicoverpa armigera, corn borer, Southern corn rust, northern and southern leaf blight, ear rot;

Additionally, late blight in potato, Sclerotinia stem rot in rape, root rot in soybean, meadow moth, and locusts.

Wheat scab

A high prevalence is expected, with high outbreak risks in the wheat-growing areas of the Jianghuai Region; moderate prevalence is anticipated in wheat-growing regions along the Yangtze River, as well as in Jianghuai Region, Huanghuai Region, and southern North China. 

The estimated affected area nationwide is 120 million mu.

Wheat crown rot

Moderate prevalence is expected, especially in wheat-growing areas in northern Huanghuai Region, with moderate levels anticipated across other parts of Huanghuai Region and southern North China.

The estimated affected area nationwide is 60 million mu.

Wheat stripe rust

Moderate prevalence is expected, with higher rates in the Han River basin and moderate levels in wheat-growing areas in eastern Northwest China, central and western Jianghuai Region and Huanghuai Region, most of the Sichuan Basin, and the Ili River Valley in Xinjiang. 

The estimated affected area nationwide is 30 million mu.

Rice striped stem borer

A high prevalence is anticipated, with widespread outbreaks expected in most rice-growing areas of Jiangnan Region; localized higher prevalence is predicted in northern Southwest China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, while other rice-growing areas may experience light to moderate levels. 

The estimated cumulative affected area nationwide is 220 million mu.

Rice planthopper

An overall higher prevalence is expected, particularly in rice-growing areas in northern and eastern Southwest China, South China, Jiangnan Region, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with other southern rice-growing areas experiencing moderate levels. 

The estimated cumulative affected area nationwide is 310 million mu.

Rice leaf folder

An overall moderate prevalence is expected, with higher rates in rice-growing areas in eastern Southwest China, most of South China, Jiangnan Region, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Other southern rice-growing areas are expected to see moderate levels. 

The estimated cumulative affected area nationwide is 210 million mu.

Fall armyworm

An overall moderate prevalence is expected, with some localized lighter occurrences; multiple generations and severe infestations are anticipated in Southwest and South China, while moderate occurrences are expected in Jiangnan Region, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Jianghuai Region, and Huanghuai Region. Lighter occurrences are anticipated in Northwest and North China, showing a declining trend in recent years. 

The estimated cumulative affected area nationwide is 35 million mu.

Southern corn rust

Significant outbreak risks exist, primarily affecting regions such as He’nan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hebei, Shanxi, and Tianjin. Outbreaks are expected in Jiangnan and Huanghuai regions following typhoons. 

The estimated cumulative affected area nationwide is 50 million mu.

Weed and rodent infestations

Weeds are expected to be generally prevalent in agricultural fields, with an estimated cumulative affected area of 1.5 billion mu. Special attention should be paid to the emergence of resistant weeds in rice fields. 

Rodent infestations in agricultural areas are projected to be moderate, affecting an estimated cumulative area of 230 million mu and impacting over 85 million households.