Brazil expected to produce 299.27 million tons of grains in 2023-2024 harvest

Date:07-15-2024

The volume of Brazilian grain production is expected to reach 299.27 million tons in the 2023-2024 harvest. 

The amount represented a decrease of 6.4% or 20.54 million tons compared to the previous cycle, but still positioned this harvest as the second largest ever in the country. The data was included in the 10th grain survey, released by the National Supply Company (Conab), on July 11.

According to the estimate, the field survey carried out at the end of June indicated a positive variation of 0.6% or 1.72 million tons from the previous month's survey. The reason was the advance in the harvest of the main crops, indicating a recovery in production, especially in second-crop corn, sesame and rice. On the other hand, there was a reduction in first-crop corn, beans, wheat, cotton and soybeans.

According to the survey, the drop observed in the previous cycle is mainly due to the intensity of the El Niño phenomenon, which had a negative influence on climate behavior from the beginning of planting in this harvest. It even reached the reproduction phases of the first harvest crops planted until the end of October, in the central producing regions of the country.

Regarding soybeans, the production estimate is 147.34 million tons, a reduction of 4.7% or 7.27 million tons compared to the previous harvest, with the harvest completed. As a result, the states of Mato Grosso, the largest soybean producer in the country, with 39.34 million tons, and Bahia, with the highest productivity, with 3,780 kg/ha, stand out. 

Corn production is estimated at 115.86 million tons, including the three harvests. The volume is 12.2% or 16.03 million tons below the 2022-2023 harvest. However, the crop survey shows that weather conditions have been favorable, with most crops in the vegetative development and reproductive phases.

The total cultivated area in the country, with the products analyzed, shows an increase of 1.5%, corresponding to 1.21 million hectares more from the last harvest. The most significant growth was in soybeans, with 1.94 million hectares, followed by sesame, cotton, sorghum, beans and rice. Total corn was reduced to 1.41 million hectares, followed by wheat and other winter crops.

Winter crops, which include wheat, oats, canola, rye, barley and triticale, are currently being planted. Specifically for wheat, preliminary estimates indicate production of 8.96 million tons on an area of 3.07 million hectares.

Market: Regarding the agricultural market movements, the behavior of rice prices stood out. They have been operating close to stable producer prices in Rio Grande do Sul, with the current level of sales being very profitable for producers who harvested without the negative impact of floods in the state. Furthermore, the projection of a market adjustment between supply and demand for rice stood out, which corroborated the prospect of remunerative prices throughout 2024, and, amid this predicted scenario, the expectation was a sharp expansion of the grain area throughout the country.

For the corn market, the dollar’s recent appreciation against the Real was reflected in an upward bias in domestic prices in Brazil. This is even after US prices fell, following the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) announcement of a survey of corn-planted area exceeding the planting intention previously published by this American department. 

The intense correlation between national and international prices for soybeans was illustrated amid the large volume of the Brazilian harvest destined for exports. With the expectation of a less profitable market for the North American producer, the soybean planted area in the US was below the USDA’s and the market initial forecast. However, despite the reduction, the new harvest was estimated to be 3% larger than the previous one. Thus, the outlook for prices with difficulty in appreciating throughout 2024 in Brazil remains, with the international market well supplied.

For beans, the forecast for the 2023-2024 season was an average volume of around 3.3 million tons, 7.6% above the previous harvest. The result was the sum of the production of the first and second harvests, determined in the field survey carried out in June 2024, plus the forecasts for the third harvest. The result will be a carryover stock of around 642,600 tons of beans, starting from an initial stock of 325,000 tons, consumption at 2.85 million tons, imports at 50,000 tons and exports at 150,000 tons, a volume that should contribute to maintaining regular domestic supply.