Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat output cut significantly: BCR

Date:11-14-2022

Argentina’s 2022-23 wheat production is forecast to fall to its lowest since 2017-18, as the persistent drought conditions and recent frosts significantly affected yield prospects, the Rosario board of trade (BCR) said.

BCR cut its Argentina wheat production forecast for the 2022-23 season (December-November) to just 11.8mn t from the 13.7mn t it estimated in October. If confirmed, this would be the lowest level in the past seven years and almost half the record 22.5mn t produced in 2021-22. The new projected figure is also lower than the 14mn t currently projected by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange and the 15.5mn t released by the US Department of Agriculture in its November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report on Wednesday.

Argentina’s wheat planting has taken place during unfavourable weather this year, with dry conditions limiting planting progress in the main agricultural regions, while frost throughout October and early November further reduced yield potential.

The sharp drop in temperatures that struck wheat crops in October is largely responsible for reduced average yields now anticipated at 2.3 t/hectares (ha), compared with the five-year average of 3.15 t/ha, with further cuts in yield estimates possible, the BCR said.

As for the acreages, the current wheat production forecast is based on the 5.9mn ha of planted area, with 830,000ha expected to be lost.

Low soil moisture levels continue to prevent corn planting in Argentina, with BCR trimming its estimate for 2022-23 corn planted areas by 100,000ha, switching them to soybeans. As a result, Argentina’s 2022-23 soybean planted areas are now pegged at 17.1mn ha, while corn areas are forecast at 7.9mn.