USDA predicts expansion of soybean shipments from Paraguay by 2030

Date:03-24-2021

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated a growth in soybean exports from Paraguay by 2030. “The macroeconomic assumptions regarding the long-term projections established by the USDA reflect the economic consequences of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic that began in early 2020. As a result, the US and other global economies contracted. However, they are expected to rebound from 2021 onwards,” the report stated. 

Despite the anticipated recovery, the current macroeconomic projection indicates that the aggregate demand for agricultural products will remain below previous projections.

Total planted area is expected to increase during the first years of the projected period, which will run until 2030. Therefore, some countries, such as Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, are expected to expand their farming areas planted with soybeans, with exports increasing by around 38% to 11.7 million tons by 2030-2031, adding 3.2 million tons to global soybean exports. Total exports from South America, mainly Argentina, Brazil, Guyana, Paraguay and Uruguay, are projected to expand by 8.5% over the next decade, representing 7.3% of world trade, according to the analysis of the consulting firm, Mentu, which echoed the USDA report. 

It was also announced that the prices of most major crops are expected to remain low or stable compared to recent levels, with only cotton, rice and wheat projected to experience price increases. Therefore, it is estimated that gross income will increase from US$423.5 billion in 2021 to US$466.1 billion in 2030. On the other hand, these projections do not include the suspension, by Brazil, of tariffs on the importation of corn, soybeans, soybean meal and soybean oil from countries outside the Mercosur trading bloc.