Indian ammonia buying down 10pc on the year

Date:11-10-2020

Imports reached just over 2mn t in January-October, compared to 2.21mn t in the same period of last year.

Disruptions to the logistics chain and labour shortages caused by Covid-19 lowered DAP and NPK production in India in the first half of the year, in turn lowering ammonia feedstock requirements.

A fall of 10pc in import demand will see 2020 imports reach around 2.42mn t, down from 2.69mnt in 2019. The rate of imports has improved in the fourth quarter as buyers secure ammonia for the rabi season. October imports are over 253,000t, according to Argus data, but most spot buying for 4Q is now reported to be covered, and November and December imports are not expected to exceed this level.

Indian delivered prices peaked in January this year at $285/t cfr, before losing $70 in value, bottoming out at $215/t cfr in late May. The improvement in demand in the second half of the year has seen the market recover to just below pre-Covid 19 levels, with spot prices currently $281.50/t cfr on a mid-point basis.

Indian fertilizer producer IFFCO remains the largest ammonia importer in the country, buying more than 730,000t year to date, followed by fellow producer CIL with 500,000t.