Monsoon may bring some relief to India's virus-battered economy

India is forecast to see a normal monsoon season this year, offering relief for the country's virus-savaged economy as it awaits the rain that waters more than half of the country's farmland.

 

Annual rainfall during the June-September rainy season is likely to be in line with the long-term average of 35 inches (88 centimeters), Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said via a video conference.

 

The monsoon is critical to Indian agriculture as it not only waters some fields directly, but also fills reservoirs that help irrigate winter-sown crops. It shapes the livelihood of millions and influences food prices. Insufficient rain in the country, the second-biggest producer of rice and wheat, often leads to drinking water shortages, lower crop output and higher imports of commodities such as edible oils.

 

The monsoon forecast may bring some hope at a time when the economy is estimated to be heading for a rare quarterly contraction due to a 40-day nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus. India's rural economy -- which accounts for about 45% of GDP -- continued to contract in year-on-year terms in February, prior to the virus outbreak, according to Bloomberg's monthly tracker.

 

"The forecast of a normal monsoon for 2020 comes as a relief amid the ongoing health crisis, with its associated negative impact on economic activity," said Aditi Nayar, an economist with Icra Ltd.

 

A well-distributed monsoon in conjunction with abundant reservoir levels should support agricultural growth of between 3.5%-4.5% this fiscal year, Nayar said.

 

The probability of a normal monsoon is 41%, while there's a 20% chance of below-normal rainfall, the India Meteorological Department said. The prediction has a margin of error of 5%.

 

About 60% to 90% of total annual rainfall occurs during the June-September monsoon season over different states, except the southern state of Tamil Nadu, which gets only about 35% of its annual rainfall during the four-month period.

 

The monsoon typically reaches the southern Indian state of Kerala in the first week of June. Any delay or deficit in the early part of the season could hamper sowing and hurt crops such as rice, cotton and soybeans, even if the rainfall gathers pace later. Last year's monsoon rain was 10% more than normal, the highest since 1994. That helped boost crops, with India's food grain output estimated to have reached a record in 2019-20.

 

Currently, ENSO-neutral conditions are prevailing over the Pacific Ocean, according to the weather agency. The weather phenomena refers to the absence of El Nino or La Nina. The latest forecast indicates ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to continue during the four-month monsoon season.

 

The forecast indicates there's a probability that weak La Nina conditions will develop over the Pacific Ocean in the second half of the rainy season. Conditions for an Indian Ocean Dipole, which is similar to El Nino, are neutral at the moment and that's likely to continue during the four-month monsoon season.

 

The El Nino weather phenomenon, which creates an abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean, tends to lower rainfall during India's monsoons. La Nina typically brings more rain to parts of Asia, including India. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are favorable for normal or above-normal rain.

 

As sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific and Indian Oceans are known to have strong influence on Indian monsoon, the weather office is monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over the Pacific and the Indian oceans, it said.

 

According to a dynamic weather model, which is experimental at present, there is a 70% probability of rain to be above-normal to excess, the weather office said.