Summer crop area and production in Australia estimated to largely decrease

Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently reported assessment of crop condition and prospects for major field crops in Australia. It includes analysis of climate and agronomic conditions and forecasts of area, yield and production in key producing states.

 

Production prospects for summer crops in Queensland and northern New South Wales remain well below average. This follows unfavourable seasonal conditions in December that further depleted soil moisture levels to well below average in most summer cropping regions and record lows in some others. These low levels of soil moisture constrained planting of summer crops in most regions. Other than in central Queensland, substantial rainfall from late January through to mid-February generally arrived too late for additional planting of summer crops. Sufficient and timely rainfall over the remainder of the summer crop season will be required to achieve average yields in most regions.

 

According to the latest three-month rainfall outlook (March to May), issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 6 February 2020, rainfall in most cropping regions in Queensland and northern New South Wales is generally more likely to be below average than above average but this likelihood is generally stronger in Queensland. There is no strong tendency toward either above or below average rainfall in the remaining summer cropping regions.

 

Planting of summer crops is largely complete and planted area is estimated to have decreased by 66% in 2019–20 to 357,000 hectares. This is a 33% downward revision from the forecast ABARES published in the December 2019 Australian crop report, largely reflecting much more unfavourable conditions in December than expected. Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 66% to around 878,000 tonnes.

 

Area planted to grain sorghum is estimated to have decreased by 71% in 2019–20 to 143,000 hectares. Production is forecast to fall by 77% to around 292,000 tonnes.

 

Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 82% in 2019–20 to 61,000 hectares because of low supplies of irrigation water and insufficient levels of soil moisture to plant dryland cotton. Planted area is estimated to be the lowest since 1978–79 when it was 50,000 hectares. Production is forecast to decline by 72% to around 135,000 tonnes of lint and 191,000 tonnes of seed. The average yield is forecast to rise from last season because almost all cotton crops this season are irrigated.

 

Rice production is forecast to remain low at around 54,000 tonnes because of low water allocations and high water prices.

 

Harvesting of 2019–20 winter crops is largely complete and estimated production remains largely unchanged from the forecast ABARES published in the December 2019 edition of Australian crop report. Higher than expected barley and canola production is estimated to have offset lower than expected wheat production.

 

Australian winter crop production is estimated to have decreased by 5% in 2019–20 to just under 29 million tonnes. Wheat production is estimated to have fallen by 12% to 15.2 million tonnes, barley production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 8.9 million tonnes and canola production is estimated to have increased by 7% to 2.3 million tonnes. Amongst other crops, chickpea production is estimated to have remained largely unchanged at 281,000 tonnes and oats production is estimated to have increased by 1% to 900,000 tonnes.

 

Winter crop area is estimated to have increased slightly in 2019–20 to 18 million hectares.