Conab lowers Brazilian soybean production 3.5 mt to 115.3 million

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.
 

In their February Crop Report released on February 12th, Conab lowered their estimate of the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean crop by 3.5 million tons to 115.3 million. They indicated that the reduction was the result of hot and dry weather during December and part of January. They also indicated that the estimate might decline even further in the March Report because the dry weather during January extended past the time that they conducted their survey for the February Report. Their current Brazilian soybean estimate is approximately 4 million tons less than last year (-3.3%).
 

The 2018/19 Brazilian soybean acreage is estimated at 35.8 million hectares (88.4 million acres), which represents an increase of 1.9% compared to last year. The current nationwide soybean yield is estimated at 3,220 kg/ha (47.6 bu/ac), which is down 5.1% from last year's yield of 3,394 kg/ha (50.2 bu/ac).
 

While the 2018/19 Brazilian soybean estimate declined, the 2018/19 Brazilian corn estimate was increased 0.4 million tons to 91.6 million. They lowered their estimate of the full-season corn production while they increased their estimate of the safrinha corn production.
 

The full season corn production is now estimated at 26.4 million tons, which is down 1.0 million tons from last month. The reason for the decline were lower yields resulting from the hot and dry conditions. They are currently estimating the full-season corn yield at 5,271 (81.1 bu/ac). The full-season corn acreage is 5.0 million hectares (12.3 million acres), which is down 1.2% from last year.
 

The safrinha corn production is estimated at 65.1 million tons, which is up 1.4 million tons from last month. The safrinha corn acreage is estimated at 11.8 million hectares (29.1 million acres), which is up 2.4% compared to last year. The safrinha corn yield is estimated at 5,523 kg/ha (85.0 bu/ac) which is up 18.2% compared to last year's yield of 4,673 kg/ha (71.9 bu/ac). The estimated 2018/19 safrinha corn crop is up 21% compared to last year's disappointing crop.