South Africa forecast winter cereals production up by 25% in 2016

Crop	Area planted 2016 (ha)	Area planted 2015 (ha)	change%	5th forecast 2016 (tons)	Final production 2015 (tons)	change%
Wheat	508,365	482,150	+5.4	1,875,540	1,440,000	+30.2
Malting barley	88,695	93,730	-5.4	339,135	332,000	+2.1
Canola	68,075	78,050	-12.8	108,860	93,000	+17.1
Total	665,135	653,930	+1.7	2,323,535	1,865,000	+24.6
Note: Estimate is for calendar year, e.g. production season 2016 = 2016

Wheat: The expected commercial production of wheat is 1.876 million tons, which is 6.2% or 109 260 tons more than the previous forecast of 1.766 million tons, whilst the expected yield is 3.69 t/ha. The main reason for the increase in wheat production is that farmers harvested better than expected yields, especially in the Western Cape. 

 

The expected production in the Western Cape increased by 10.0 % or 96,900 tons, from 969,000 tons to 1.066 million tons against the previous forecast. 

 

The production forecast for the Free State remained unchanged at 308,000 tons. In the Northern Cape, the expected production forecast increased by 5.6% or 14,000 tons, from 252,000 tons to 266,000 tons. 

 

The area estimate for wheat 508,365 ha. 

 

Other crops: The production forecast for malting barley is 339,135 tons, which is 9.5% or 29,320 tons more than the previous forecast of 309,815 tons. The area planted is estimated at 88,695 ha, while the expected yield is 3.82 t/ha. 

 

The expected canola crop was adjusted downwards by 3.0% or 3,400 tons to 108,860 tons. The area estimate for canola is 68,075 ha, with an expected yield of 1.60 t/ha.