Ag Canada lowers 2015-16 crop production forecasts

Date:07-27-2015

Canadian farmers will grow considerably less wheat and canola in 2015-16 than earlier thought, according to updated grain and oilseed supply-demand estimates from Agriculture Canada released July 21.

Ag Canada’s market analysis division forecast total production of the eight major grains and oilseeds for 2015-16 at 70.787 million tonnes, which was down from their previous forecast of 75.285 million and the 2014-15 level of 73.589 million .

Wheat, barley, and canola saw the largest downward revisions, given acreage adjustments and expectations for below-trend yields in the dry regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan.
The government agency said further yield reductions were possible in subsequent reports if the dryness persists.

The eight major grains and oilseeds include: canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.

Total ending stocks for the major grains and oilseeds are expected to total 7.465 million tonnes by the end of the 2015-16 crop year, down from the previous projection of 8.995 million. Ending stocks for 2014-15 were pegged at 11.168 million tonnes.

Total exports were forecast at 38.335 million tonnes for 2015-16, down from the June estimate of 40.080 million . Exports in 2014-15 were estimated at 42.235 million tonnes.

Total domestic usage of the various grains and oilseeds for the 2015-16 crop year was forecast at 37.852 million tonnes, which would be down from the 38.953 million  forecast in June. For 2014-15, domestic usage was pegged at 40.284 million tonnes.