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Cotton area in Australia forecast to fall by almost half in 2014/15

Date:12-03-2014

Summer crops

The area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 13.3% to 974,000 hectares, driven by a large fall in the area planted to cotton, according to Australian Crop Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) in December. The area planted to cotton is estimated to decline to 210,000 hectares in 2014-15, down from 392,000 hectares in 2013-14. This reflects relatively low cotton prices at the time of planting and dry seasonal conditions over winter, which reduced the level of irrigation water in dams serving Australia’s cotton growing regions.

Australian crop planting area (000 ha)
Crop
2014–15 (forecast)1
2013-14 (est.)1
change%
Winter crops
Wheat
13,836
13,511
+2.4
Barley
3,798
3,920
-3.1
Canola
2,713
2,655
+2.2
Chickpeas
343
507
-32.3
Faba beans
166
152
+9.2
Field peas
231
245
-5.7
Lentils
172
169
+1.8
Lupins
437
387
+12.9
Oats
739
744
-0.7
Triticale
152
151
+0.7
Others
18
17
+5.9
Total
22,605
22,458
+0.7
Summer crops
Grain sorghum
532
493
+7.9
Cotton2
210
392
-46.4
Rice
71
76
-6.6
Maize
62
58
+6.9
Soybeans
27
31
-12.9
Sunflower
25
27
-7.4
Others
47
47
-
Total
974
1,124
-13.3
Note:
1 The crop year refers to crops planted during the 12 months to 31 March. Slight discrepancies may appear between tables as a result of including the Australian Capital Territory and Northern Territory in the Australian totals.
2 Cotton area is estimated harvested area.
Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

The area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to rise by 8% in 2014-15 to 532,000 hectares. At this forecast level, the area planted to grain sorghum would be 24% less than the 10-year average to 2012-13 of 702,000 hectares. Because soil moisture levels are low in summer cropping regions, sufficient and timely in-crop rainfall will be critical for the development of grain sorghum crops in 2014-15. The area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 6.6% in 2014-15 to around 71,000 hectares, reflecting a reduction in the supply of irrigation water in New South Wales.
 
Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 13% in 2014–15 to around 3.2 million tonnes.
 
Cotton production is forecast to fall by almost half in 2014–15 to 470,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 665,000 tonnes of cottonseed, largely reflecting the fall in planted area. Grain sorghum production is forecast to be 1.3 million tonnes in 2014–15, compared with 1.1 million tonnes in 2013–14. Rice production is forecast to decline by 18% to 684,000 tonnes, assuming lower yields than the relatively high yields in 2013–14.
 
Winter crops
 
Total planted area of winter crops is forecast to rise slightly by 0.7% to 22.605 million hectares in 2014-15. Area of chickpeas is estimated to have fallen significantly by 32% to 343,000 hectares, in response to declining chickpea prices and low levels of soil moisture at the time of planting.
 
Compared with production in 2013–14, winter crop production in 2014–15 is forecast to fall in all the major producing states, with large forecast falls in Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia. However, the expected falls in production in Western Australia and South Australia are from well above average levels of production in 2013–14.
 
Harvesting of winter crops is largely complete in Queensland and northern New South Wales. Harvesting is underway in Western Australia, South Australia, southern New South Wales and Victoria.
 
Total Australian winter crop production is forecast to decline by 16% in 2014–15 to 37 million tonnes. At this forecast level, winter crop production in 2014–15 would still be around 4% higher than the average of 35.7 million tonnes in the 10 years to 2012–13.
 
For the major winter crops: wheat production is forecast to fall by 14% to 23.2 million tonnes; barley production is forecast to fall by 22% to around 7.4 million tonnes; and canola production is forecast to fall by 12% to around 3.3 million tonnes.

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