Pulse and special crops outlook for 2012-13 in Canada

For 2011-12, prices in Canada for P&SC have averaged higher than 2010-11, with record prices for dry beans, chickpeas and sunflower seed. Total exports from Canada are forecast to decrease by 20%, largely due to the significant decrease in supply. Total domestic use is expected to be higher, particularly for dry peas and lentils. Carry-out stocks are forecast to fall sharply for most crops with the exception of lentils, which are expected to rise.

For 2012-13, total area seeded to P&SC in Canada is forecast to increase by 9% from 2011-12 to 2.6 Mha. The areas seeded for all crops included in this report, except lentils, are expected to increase. Average yields are generally expected to increase marginally from the levels attained in 2011 and trend yields are assumed for both western and eastern Canada. Total production is forecast to rise by 10% to 4.6 Mt. However, supply is expected to fall marginally due to lower carry-in stocks for most crops, particularly dry peas. Exports are expected to rise by 3% to 3.9 Mt, while domestic use is expected to fall. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise to 1.1 Mt. Prices, averaged over all types, grades and markets, are forecast to fall for all crops, but remain historically high for most crops. The main factors to watch are commodity prices and input costs, precipitation in Canada over the spring and the Canada-US exchange rate.

Dry Peas

For 2011-12, exports are forecast to be significantly lower than 2010-11 due to the combination of limited supply and lower demand from the Indian subcontinent (India, Pakistan and Bangladesh). This region is expected to import about 1.2 Mt of Canadian dry peas, mostly yellow types, compared to 2.0 Mt last year. Canada is expected to export a record amount of dry peas to China this year. Domestic use is forecast to be higher than last year. Carry-out stocks in Canada are expected to fall sharply as exports nearly equal production for the second consecutive year. The average price is forecast to rise due to higher prices for green and yellow peas and record prices for feed peas.

For 2012-13, seeded area, and production, are forecast to increase sharply from 2011-12 because of higher expected returns relative to other crops. The recent strength in green pea types relative to yellow types in 2011-12 may encourage more area seeded to green peas at the expense of yellow peas. However, supply is forecast to only increase slightly to 2.8 Mt as the rise in production is partly offset by significantly lower carryin stocks. Exports are forecast to increase to 2.2 Mt, due to higher supply. Carry-out stocks are also forecast to rise, but remain tight. The average price is expected to decrease from 2011-12, due to the larger expected world supply and carry-out stocks.

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