Fertilizer market in Brazil ends 2024 with optimistic outlook

With 2024 drawing to a close, the Brazilian fertilizer market has shown stable and promising results. 

Aluísio Teixeira, president of Sindiadubos (Fertilizer and Agricultural Supplements Industry Association of Paraná State), presented the market analyses and projections during the 18th NPK Symposium 2024.

Analysis of three distinct scenarios for the year indicates total deliveries ranging between 45 and 46 million tons, with carryover stocks between 9 and 10 million tons—figures that reflect performance aligned with sector expectations. According to Sindiadubos, these encouraging figures emerge amid a challenging and highly dynamic economic landscape.

In the first scenario, deliveries from August to December are projected at around 45.7 million tons, with estimated imports of 40 million tons and domestic production of 6.7 million tons. With exports of 646,000 tons, the carryover stock should settle at approximately 9.6 million tons by year-end. The second scenario, which considers a slight 2.5% decrease in deliveries, would result in a carryover stock of 10.2 million tons. 

"Industry experts assess that a reduction of this magnitude is unlikely," stated the association's president.

The third scenario anticipates increased deliveries in the last quarter, maintaining the import and annual production trend. Total delivery estimates are 46.3 million tons, and final stocks are 9 million tons.

For 2024, strong domestic demand is putting pressure on stocks without compromising supply. Even amid global market fluctuations, with many consultancies predicting price drops due to increased stocks, sector data indicates this relationship doesn't always hold true in the fertilizer market. 

"In a context where agricultural seasonality carries significant weight, as in the summer crop season, the current stock of nine million tons is not considered excessive since demand typically increases between January and February of the following year," Teixeira emphasized.

Product-specific analysis shows that urea supply remains stable, with about 1.5 million tons still expected to reach the market by the end of the year. Potassium chloride, which saw record consumption throughout the year, presents a more cautious outlook. 

"While some consultancies indicate possible price decreases, the sector warns about making short-term predictions, as year-end adjustments could still bring surprises," Teixeira cautioned.

According to Sindiadubos' president, throughout the year, various consultancies recommended waiting for price drops, unanimously expecting decreases. However, the sector emphasized the importance of considering real market variables, such as actual product availability. 

"Products like simple and triple superphosphate show stocks similar to last year's levels, and although there's a MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) deficit compared to 2023, phosphorus supply for the market remains comfortable through year-end," he noted.

The sector maintained optimism, forecasting a balanced year-end in terms of deliveries and stocks, ensuring adequate supply for domestic producers. "With improved logistics and expanding distribution units across the country, the fertilizer market remains strong and resilient, closely monitoring demands and ensuring availability of essential products for Brazilian agriculture," the president said in conclusion.

The 18th NPK Symposium 2024, held in Curitiba, the capital of the Brazilian state of Paraná, is the country's largest in-person fertilizer event. The symposium gathered a wide range of participants, including fertilizer importers, manufacturers, distributors, additive producers, input suppliers, and other agribusiness stakeholders. This year's event attracted approximately 1,000 participants.

(Editing by Leonardo Gottems, reporter for AgroPages)