U.S. wheat production estimated at highest level in 8 years

U.S. wheat production for the 2024/25 marketing year is estimated at 1.971 billion bushels, up 9 percent year to year and the highest level since 2016/17. This development stands in contrast to a long-term downward trend in U.S. wheat production resulting from declining acreage as more farmers switched to production of other crops, such as corn and soybeans. 

For the last two seasons, however, wheat acreage—as measured by area harvested—has risen. High wheat prices during the fall of 2022 encouraged farmers to plant substantially more wheat for the 2023/24 marketing year. 

Despite area gains, a major drought in regions producing hard red winter wheat (one of the five major classes of wheat) negatively affected the harvestable volume of wheat. In 2024/25, despite less acreage being planted into wheat, more favorable weather is expected to boost area harvested and yield compared with the previous season. 

Production is forecast higher for hard red winter, hard red spring, white, and durum classes of wheat as conditions have been generally favorable. While soft red winter production is down 24 percent from the previous year’s bumper crop, it is forecast above the recent 5-year average. This chart is drawn from the August 2024 Wheat Outlook and has been updated with recent data.