Fires in the state of Sao Paulo impact Brazil's sugarcane production

Hot and dry weather and numerous wildfires have negatively impacted the sugarcane crop in the state of Sao Paulo, which is Brazil's largest sugarcane producing state. According to the Sugarcane Producers Organization of Brazil (Orplana), which is comprised of 35 associations that represent 12,000 sugarcane producers, the recent fires in Sao Paulo impacted more than 100,000 hectares of sugarcane or approximately 2% of the sugarcane in the state.

The sugarcane had already been suffering from record temperatures and drought and losses from the drought and fires are estimated at R$ 800 million including sugarcane lost to the fires and poorer quality of the burnt sugarcane. Sugarcane impacted by the fires needs to be harvested within 48 hours to avoid a significant decline in quality.

The fires not only impacted the 2024/25 crop, but they may also impact the 2025/26 crop as well. Sugarcane is usually allowed to regrow five times before it is replanted at a significant cost to the producer. Some of the fires impacted sugarcane fields that had already been harvested and had started to regrow. If the regrowth was interrupted, it could impact the 2025/26 production. In a worst-case scenario, the field may have to be replanted before the producer had planned.

The consulting firm Datagro recently lowered their estimate of sugar production in south-central Brazil to 39.3 million tons compared to their previous estimate of 40.0 million tons. Compared to last year, sugarcane production in south-central Brazil is down 9.4% and sugar production is down 7.4%.

Datagro is estimating 2024/25 ethanol production in south-central Brazil at 32.52 billion liters which is down 3.2%. Ethanol produced from sugarcane is down, but ethanol produced from corn is up compared to last year. Corn-based ethanol production in south-central Brazil in 2024/25 is estimated at 8.0 billion liters, which represents 24.6% of the total ethanol production compared to 18.7% in 2023/24.