Grain production in Brazil expected to reach 298.6 million tons in the 2023/2024 harvest

Brazilian grain production is expected to reach 298.6 million tons in the 2023-2024 harvest, a reduction of 21.2 million tons when compared to the volume obtained in the previous season. 

The data are in the 11th Grain Harvest Survey released this Tuesday (13) by the National Supply Company (Conab). This drop is mainly influenced by the loss in the average productivity of the country's crops, a reflection of the adverse weather conditions on the development of first-harvest crops, especially from the beginning of planting to the crop reproduction phases.

The second corn harvest is underway and is nearing completion, with an estimated production of 90.28 million tons. According to the Harvest Progress Report, published this week by the Company, harvesting work has already completed over 90% of the country's cultivated area. Productivity levels in this grain cycle varied according to the technical package used and, mainly, the planting season. Plantings carried out within the ideal window, that is, between January and mid-February, achieved productivity levels within expectations and even higher than those recorded in the last harvest, mainly due to the regular rainfall during crop development. The exceptions to this situation occurred in Paraná, São Paulo, and Mato Grosso do Sul, where dry spells in March and April, combined with high temperatures and pest attacks, compromised the cereal's production potential.

In addition to the loss of productivity, the area allocated to corn was also reduced, both in the second and first harvests of the grain, influencing the lower harvest expectation. The total production expected for the 2023-2024 cycle is around 115.65 million tons, around 12.3% lower than last season.

Another important second-harvest crop is cotton. However, for fiber, Conab predicts an increase in both the area and the average yield of crops, influenced by the climate conditions that favored the development of the crop. As a result, the forecast is for a new record for fiber production, with an estimated harvest of 3.64 million tons of cotton lint.

For beans, total production is expected to reach 3.26 million tons, 7.3% higher than the 2022-2023 production. The second harvest of the legume, with an estimated production of 1.5 million tons, had its productivity potential reduced due to the incidence of diseases and whitefly, in addition to the lack of rain and high temperatures in important producing states. The third harvest of the grain is estimated at 812.5 thousand tons, with crops generally in the development to maturity stages and in Goiás, in the initial harvest phase.

Rice, the staple of Brazilians' diet, is now harvested alongside beans. Production in this cycle grew by 5.6% compared to the volume produced in the previous harvest, reaching 10.59 million tons. The increase is influenced by the larger area cultivated in the country since the average productivity of the crops was affected, reflecting adverse weather conditions and instability during the crop's production cycle, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, the largest grain producer.

As for soybeans, the prominent grain cultivated in the country, production in the current harvest is 147.38 million tons, a reduction of 4.7% compared to the previous cycle. In the areas sown between September and October, in the Central-West, Southeast and Matopiba regions, there were changes in the productive potential of the crops, with low rainfall and high temperatures, situations that caused replanting and productivity losses, unlike areas with later crops.

Among winter crops, wheat stands out. Sowing in the states of the Southern Region, the country’s largest producer of cereal, where 85% of the cultivated area is concentrated, is almost complete, with areas remaining in Santa Catarina to be planted. In Rio Grande do Sul, planting has been completed after the initial delay in sowing due to excessive rain, as have the areas sown in Paraná. The expectation is a 11.6% reduction in the area allocated to the cereal, estimated at 3.07 million hectares.

Market – In this 11th survey, Conab kept its supply projections for the 2023-2024 harvest stable for the main products analyzed except corn. The Company increased its export estimate for this product by 2.5 million tons. This increase occurred amid the recent devaluation of the Brazilian currency, which has been reflected in an increase in the flow of cereal sales to the foreign market.

The exchange rate may also affect rice exports, estimated at 1.3 million tons. Last month, the volume of rice shipped reached 175 thousand tons, while exports reached 62,000 tons in June. However, it is worth noting that the lower domestic availability of the grain should limit the volume shipped until the 2024-2025 cycle.

Please contact Christina Xie at christina@agropages.com if you would like to share your company story or advertising in the upcoming 2024 Latin America Focus magazine.