Lantmännen’s harvest forecast 2024: 5.4 million tonnes of grain

After last year’s historically poor harvest, among the worst in 30 years, we are now approaching a harvest that is the most important in a long time. Lantmännen’s forecast for this year’s Swedish harvest amounts to 5.4 million tonnes of grain. That is to be considered as an average harvest, compared to the past several years.

Delayed spring farming – and regional variations 

″Delayed spring farming, combined with a wet winter and a dry early summer in large parts of the country means that this year’s spring crop harvest will be generally lower, while winter crops are developing better. In terms of quality for this year’s harvest, farmers have done what they can, but grain quality is largely dependent on the weather during the harvest period,″ says Per Germundsson, Head of Grain Supply and Sales at Lantmännen Agriculture. 

There are regional variations in the harvest forecast; for example are the western parts of Götaland, Östergötland and parts of Skåne heading towards a good harvest. Vikbolandet and southern Gotland, however, were impacted severely by drought in the early summer, and seem to get a lower harvest. There are also further variations within the areas mentioned above. 

Profitable farming is a precondition for Swedish food supply 

Uncertainties in the global business environment highlights the importance of viable, competitive Swedish agriculture and a robust national food supply. The harvest forms the basis for profitability in agriculture, and it is important that farmers are able to salvage consistent and large harvests of a good quality. 

Last year’s harvest of 4.3 million tonnes of grain was among the worst in 30 years, and Sweden, which normally exports grain, has instead needed to import to cover its needs. The poor harvest, combined with high prices for input goods and energy, as well as higher interest costs, has been challenging for many Swedish farmers. Margins within Swedish agriculture are small, and a good harvest this year is critical for Swedish farming – but also for domestic food production and Swedish food preparedness. 

″Competitiveness and profitability in agriculture needs to be strengthened to cover the great need for investments, to manage the climate change, and to secure Swedish food supply. For example, investments of more than 50 billion SEK are needed in climate adaptation such as irrigation and drainage. That requires actions both in the market and in politics, since the profitability of Swedish agriculture doesn’t cover investments of that size,″ says Magnus Kagevik, Lantmännen’s Group President and CEO. 

Farmers all around the country are now preparing for intensive work with this year’s important harvest. The harvest period stretches from July to October, after which the actual outcome is determined.

*A normal year is calculated as the average of five years after excluding the best and worst years from the last seven years.  

The harvest forecast is based on an estimated yield based on weather data, precipitation, temperature, and area data for each county, which farmers in Sweden have submitted to the Swedish Board of Agriculture. Historical data, such as returns for similar years, are also taken into account. Assessing the harvest in advance is difficult and it is therefore important to keep in mind that the harvest forecast is precisely a forecast. 

Lantmännen's harvest forecast 2024 (pdf in Swedish)