Nutrien reports first quarter 2024 results with net earnings of $165 million, adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion

• First quarter results supported by strong grower demand for crop inputs, increased potash shipments to key global markets, higher fertilizer operating rates and lower costs.

• Maintaining full-year 2024 Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges.

All amounts are in US dollars except as otherwise noted

Nutrien Ltd. (TSX and NYSE: NTR) announced its first quarter 2024 results, with net earnings of $165 million ($0.32 diluted net earnings per share). First quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA¹ was $1.1 billion and adjusted net earnings per share¹ was $0.46.

″We continued to see strong crop input demand, a normalization of product margins for our North American Retail business and increased global potash shipments in the first quarter. Our results highlighted the capabilities of our flexible, low-cost production assets and downstream distribution network to efficiently supply our customers’ needs,″ commented Ken Seitz, Nutrien’s President and CEO.

″We expect growth in Retail earnings and fertilizer sales volumes compared to the prior year and have maintained our 2024 guidance ranges. Our focus remains on strengthening our capability to serve growers and enhancing our core businesses to improve the quality of our earnings and free cash flow,″ added Mr. Seitz.

Highlights²:

• Generated net earnings of $165 million and adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2024, down from the same period in 2023 primarily due to lower net fertilizer selling prices. This was partially offset by increased Retail earnings, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower natural gas costs.

• Nutrien Ag Solutions (″Retail″) adjusted EBITDA increased to $77 million in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher gross margin for crop nutrients and crop protection products supported by strong grower demand and a normalization of product margins in North America.

• Potash adjusted EBITDA declined to $530 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices, which more than offset higher sales volumes. Nutrien increased potash production, supported by continued advancement of mine automation initiatives, and reduced the controllable cash cost of product manufactured per tonne.

• Nitrogen adjusted EBITDA declined to $464 million in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower net selling prices for all major nitrogen products, which more than offset higher sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Ammonia production increased in the first quarter, driven by higher utilization rates in Trinidad.

• Initiated a process to divest Nutrien’s Retail assets in Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay to provide greater focus on Nutrien’s core Retail businesses and enhance the quality of earnings and free cash flow.

¹ This is a non-GAAP financial measure. See the ″Non-GAAP Financial Measures″ section.

² The discussion of highlights set out on this page is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Market Outlook and Guidance

Agriculture and Retail Markets

• Nutrien expects US corn plantings of approximately 90 million acres in 2024 and soybean plantings of approximately 87 million acres. US planting progress is in line with historical average levels and fertilizer application rates have been strong. Wet weather has recently delayed planting progress and fertilizer application in the Corn Belt.

• Brazilian growers are finalizing their soybean harvest, and favorable weather conditions resulted in safrinha corn planted area exceeding initial expectations. Soybean margins are expected to improve from the compressed levels in 2023 and support growth in planted acreage and crop input demand in the second half of 2024.

• Australian soil moisture conditions vary regionally but remain supportive for this upcoming growing season and the Indian monsoon is projected to produce average to above-average precipitation, supporting yield potential and grower demand for crop inputs.

Crop Nutrient Markets

• Global potash supply and demand has been relatively balanced as increased shipments have been required to meet historically strong demand in the first quarter. Nutrien has maintained its 2024 full-year potash shipment forecast of 68 to 71 million tonnes.

• Nutrien is seeing strong potash demand in North America for the spring application season as channel inventories were tight to start 2024. Potash demand in Southeast Asia has been supported by lower inventory levels compared to the prior year and favorable economics for key crops such as oil palm and rice. China’s potash imports remained strong in the first quarter of 2024 supported by a step-change in domestic consumption but are expected to decline on a full-year basis compared to the record levels in 2023.

• Global nitrogen markets have fluctuated in 2024 driven by seasonal buying patterns, production outages and uncertainty over Chinese urea export restrictions and India’s urea import requirements. The US nitrogen supply and demand balance remains relatively tight, in particular for ammonia and UAN, with net nitrogen imports down 21 percent on a fertilizer year basis compared to the historical average.

• Phosphate fertilizer prices remained firm through the first quarter of 2024 due to strong demand in the Northern Hemisphere, supportive Indian DAP purchases, Chinese export restrictions and production outages. Prices have softened in the second quarter driven primarily by lower seasonal demand.

Financial and Operational Guidance

• Nutrien is maintaining its Retail adjusted EBITDA and fertilizer sales volume guidance ranges as market fundamentals and operational performance have been in line with the previous expectations.

• Retail adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.65 to $1.85 billion reflects expectations for increased crop nutrient sales volumes and margins for Nutrien’s North American business in the first half of 2024 and improved crop input margins in Brazil during the second half of the year. Guidance assumes a full year of earnings from Nutrien’s Retail assets in Argentina, Chile and Uruguay.

• Potash sales volumes guidance of 13.0 to 13.8 million tonnes assumes a more even split between first and second half volumes compared to the prior year. Nitrogen sales volumes guidance of 10.6 to 11.2 million tonnes assumes higher operating rates at Nutrien’s North American and Trinidad plants and growth in sales of upgraded products such as urea and nitrogen solutions.

• Effective tax rate on adjusted earnings guidance was lowered primarily due to a change to the expected geographic mix of earnings.

All guidance numbers, including those noted above are outlined in the table below. Refer to page 65 of Nutrien’s 2023 Annual Report for related assumptions and sensitivities.

Consolidated Results

Net earnings and adjusted EBITDA decreased in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, primarily due to lower net fertilizer selling prices. This was partially offset by increased Retail earnings, higher fertilizer sales volumes and lower natural gas costs. Expenses increased mainly due to higher foreign exchange losses primarily from Nutrien’s Retail – South America region in the first quarter of 2024 and an $80 million gain recognized in the first quarter of 2023 due to post-retirement benefit plan amendments.

Segment Results

The discussion of segment results set out on the following pages is a comparison of the results for the three months ended March 31, 2024 to the results for the three months ended March 31, 2023, unless otherwise noted.

Nutrien Ag Solutions (″Retail″)

• Retail adjusted EBITDA increased in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to higher gross margin for crop nutrients and crop protection products supported by strong grower demand and a normalization of product margins in North America. Gross margin of Nutrien’s proprietary products increased in the first quarter driven primarily by its crop nutritional and biostimulant product lines, as Nutrien continued to expand its differentiated product offering and manufacturing capacity.

• Crop nutrients sales decreased in the first quarter of 2024 due to lower selling prices, partially offset by higher sales volumes across all regions. Gross margin increased in the first quarter due to higher per-tonne margins and higher sales volumes resulting from a more typical start to spring applications in the US compared to 2023.

• Crop protection products sales were lower in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower selling prices. Gross margin increased compared to the first quarter of 2023, which was impacted by the sell through of higher cost inventory.

• Seed sales and gross margin decreased in the first quarter of 2024 primarily due to lower sales volumes and competitive market prices in the US, as growers delayed crop selection decisions in some regions.

• Nutrien Financial sales and gross margin increased in the first quarter of 2024 due to higher financing offering rates and expanded program participation from growers in the US and Australia.

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