Extreme weather knocks down Brazil's soybean and corn production

Lower soy yields in Mato Grosso do Sul due to adverse weather

Soybeans in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul in southern Brazil are 94% harvested according to the Soybean & Corn Producers Association of Mato Grosso do Sul (Aprosoja/MS). The harvest is most advanced in the southern part of the state at 96.5%, while 83% of the soybeans have been harvested in the northern part of the state.

At the start of the growing season, Aprosoja/MS estimated the statewide soybean yield at 54 sacks per hectare (48.2 bu/ac), but that has now been lowered to 50.5 sacks per hectare (45.0 bu/ac) or a reduction of 19% compared to 2022/23.

Aprosoja/MS is estimating the 2023/24 soybean production in Mato Grosso do Sul at 12.92 million tons, which is down 13.8% from initial expectations.

Farmers in the state planted an estimated 4.00 million hectares of soybeans (9.88 million acres), but 240,000 hectares (593,000 acres) had to be replanted due to poor emergence caused by hot and dry weather during October and November. The combination of late planting and irregular rainfall during the growing season resulted in variable plant development and lower yields.

The soybean harvest is expected to be completed in the last week of April. Farmers in the state have sold 42% of their 2023/24 production, which is slower than average due to low domestic soybean prices. Farmers are hoping for higher prices especially if potential weather concerns develop over the next few months in the U.S.

Hot and dry weather negatively impacting safrinha corn in Parana

The condition of the safrinha corn in the state of Parana in southern Brazil has declined significantly over the last two weeks due to hot and dry conditions. According to the Department of Rural Economics (Deal), the percentage of the crop rated poor is now 8%, which is up from 2% last week. The percentage of the crop rated average is 20% compared to 17% last week and the percentage of the crop rated good is 72% compared to 81% last week.

The safrinha corn is 42% in vegetative development, 31% pollinating, 26% filling grain, and 1% maturing, so the crop is reaching its maximum water demand. At the end of March, Deral estimated the safrinha corn production in Parana at 14.2 million tons, but that is expected to be revised downward at the end of April.

The forecast is calling for chances of showers later this week and the areas that need moisture the most are northwestern and western Parana. If the forecast verifies, it would be very welcome news for the safrinha corn in Parana and southern Mato Grosso do Sul.

Parana is the second largest safrinha corn producing state in Brazil after Mato Grosso and approximately 85% of the corn in the state is produced as safrinha production after soybeans are harvested. The first corn crop in Parana is estimated at 2.58 million tons.

Conab cuts 2023/24 Brazil soy, corn forecasts

In their April Crop Report, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate 0.33 million tons to 146.52 million. For corn, Conab lowered the 2023/24 Brazil estimate 1.79 million tons to 110.96 million.

Conab is now estimating the 2023/24 soybean acreage at 45.23 million hectares (111.7 million acres) which is up 65,000 hectares from the March estimate and up 2.6% year-on-year. The soybean yield is now estimated at 3,239 kg/ha (48.2 bu/ac), which is down 0.2 bu/ac from the March report and down 7.7% from last year. Brazil's 2023/24 soybean production is now estimated at 146.52 million tons, which is down 8.0 million tons or 5.2% year-on-year.

Brazil's 2023/24 corn production was lowered 1.79 million tons from the March estimate due to almost entirely a lower safrinha corn production. The safrinha acreage was increased 26,000 hectares to 15.77 million hectares (38.95 million acres), but it is still down 8.2% compared to last year.

The substantial change for the safrinha crop was the yield, which is now estimated at 5,427 kg/ha (86.2 bu/ac), down 1.9 bu/ac from the March report and down 8.9% year-on-year. The 2023/24 safrinha corn production is estimated at 85.61 million tons, which is down 1.7 million tons from March and down 16.75 million tons from the 102.36 million produced in 2023/24. This represents a decline of 16.4% year-on-year.

Lower soybean yields are attributed to adverse weather especially during October and November. Lower corn production is attributed to reduced acreage and lower yields. Many Brazilian farmers reduced their safrinha corn acreage due to delayed soybean planting/harvesting and low corn prices. Some farmers switched their intended safrinha corn acreage to cotton, grain sorghum, millet, sesame, or a grass cover crop.

Brazil's first corn crop at 23.35 million tons represents 21% of Brazil's total corn production, the safrinha crop at 85.61 million tons represents 77.1%, and the third crop at 1.99 million tons represents 1.7% of the total.