China forecast to build US$1 billion GM crop market after landmark approval

By Mandy Zuo

Market watchers are anticipating a rapid expansion of China’s presence in genetically modified food, as authorities ramp up their efforts to clear up public doubts following the breakthrough approval of several varieties of genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans.

In less than a decade, GM corn and soybeans are set to create a multi-billion-yuan market in China and replace a large portion of low-yielding conventional varieties of the crops, industry observers said.

Both are staple foods, and widely used as sources of edible oils and animal feed.

A number of leading Chinese breeders now have theoretical free rein to grow dozens of varieties of the plants, as the period for public comment on the central government’s approval of commercial planting of GM varietals ended last month.

GM corn and soybeans are expected to generate a new market worth 7 billion yuan (US$988.4 million) in eight years based on similar trends in the United States, according to a research note published by Kaiyuan Securities last week.

With the two major crops being given the green light, ″the window for commercialisation of GM seeds has opened, and leading breeders have set sail,″ it said.

Calling 2023 ″the beginning of GM seed planting″, China Galaxy Securities estimated that, in terms of growing area, about 40 per cent of all China’s soybeans and corn would be genetically edited in the six years following the shift.

″International experience has proved that the application of GM technology will bring improved output, a higher mark-up in seed prices, and reshaped industry competition,″ it said in a note in late October.

After decades of research and deliberation, the country of 1.4 billion people has sped up application of the technology as it pursues self-reliance in food and reduces its dependence on overseas markets.

October’s approval added 37 varieties of GM corn and 14 varieties of GM soybeans to its list of GM crops, which previously only included papaya and cotton.

Soybeans are a particular point of vulnerability when it comes to food security; China is the world’s largest consumer of the crop, and accounts for 60 per cent of the world’s imports.

In an attempt to dispel doubts over safety, official media has ramped up promotion of the technology after the decision was announced.

Farmers’ Daily, the official newspaper under the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) – the bureau responsible for development of GM crops – published two explainers last week on how China and other countries assess the safety of GM food.

It ensured the public that all GM food would go through a safety assessment and an approval process ″stricter than for any traditional food″.

Zhang Xiaoping, the US Soybean Export Council’s regional director for Greater China, said mass planting of Chinese GM soybeans is still far off and will not affect trade with the US, a major exporter.

However, the development is a ″good thing″ that is ″in line with global trends″, he said.

″We’re pleased to see that GM food is no longer demonised in China, and has won support in terms of public opinion as well as government policy.″

At present, China’s yields of domestically grown corn and soybean are only 60 per cent of those planted in the US, according to figures frequently quoted by agricultural officials.

Despite several extreme weather events, including severe flooding and sporadic droughts, China’s 2023 grain output is expected to exceed the government’s goal of 650 million metric tons for the ninth consecutive year and reach a record, MARA said at a press conference in October.