FAO Food Outlook predicts declining international trade in some basic foodstuffs

Production prospects across most basic foodstuffs are favourable, but extreme weather events, rising geopolitical tensions and sudden policy changes pose risks for global food production systems and could potentially tip delicate demand-supply balances and dampen prospects for trade and global food security, according to a new report from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The latest Food Outlook, a biannual publication, offers updated forecasts for the production, trade, utilization and stocks of major food staples.

Trade volumes in coarse grains and rice are expected to decline in 2023/24, even as global maize output is forecast to post a significant increase driven by increased plantings in Brazil and the United States of America.

World trade in vegetable oils and fats is also expected to dip modestly, while global production and consumption are anticipated to expand.

Trade volumes are also expected to decline in the coming year for sugar, dairy products, meat and fish, according to the report, which also offers a compendium of major policy developments in the food commodity sector since mid-May.

World food import bill

The Food Outlook also updates FAO’s estimates for the global food import bill in 2023, forecast to reach US$2 trillion in 2023, some US$35.3 billion or 1.8 percent higher than in 2022.

Fruits and vegetables along with beverages and sugar account for the bulk of the increase, the lion’s share of which is driven by high-income and upper-middle-income countries. Low-income countries, by contrast, are expected to see an 11 percent contraction in their aggregate food import bill.

Those developments often reflect world price trends, as international quotations for fruits, vegetables and sugars have surged while those for animal and vegetable oils have declined during the year. Nonetheless, the volume effect on the global food import bill is predicted to exceed the price effect, although not for high-value or processed products such as coffee, tea, cocoa and spices.

Food import bills of the least developed countries, net food importing developing countries and the countries of sub-Saharan Africa are expected to contract due in part to lower quantities, suggesting that additional factors – ranging from weakening currencies to mounting debt levels and high freight costs – are impeding their ability to access international food markets.

The report also offers a piece on domestic price developments in net food importing developing countries and analyses the trends of the FAO Global Food Consumption Price Indices, which assess changes in prices in terms of average global caloric and protein intakes.