Conab forecasts rebound in corn yields in southern Brazil

Farmers in southern Brazil have started to plant their first corn crop of the 2022/23 growing season. According to AgRural, they had planted 9% of the corn as of late last week and farmers are hoping for a rebound in yields after a very disappointing crop last year. Record high temperatures and lack of rainfall devasted the 2021/22 corn crop in much of southern Brazil.

In the three southern states of Rio Grande do Sul, Parana, and Santa Catarina, Conab is estimating a 53% increase in first crop corn production. The largest increase is expected in Rio Grande do Sul where corn yields are expected to increase 99% compared to last year to 7,000 kg/ha (111.3 bu/ac). The first crop corn production in the state is expected to increase 95% to 5.68 million tons.

In the state of Parana, the corn yields are expected to increase 23.4% to 8,517 kg/ha (135.4 bu/ac) and the state is expected to produce 3.69 million tons. In Santa Catarina, the yields are expected to increase 37.5% to 8,342 kg/ha (132.6 bu/ac) with a production estimated at 2.95 million tons.

All these production estimates are based on normal weather for the next four months, but that is uncertain due to an ongoing La Nina. La Nina has been in place for the last two growing season and it has resulted in hotter-than-normal and dryer-than-normal weather across southern Brazil. La Nina conditions are expected to remain in place until at least the end of the year, so it is uncertain if Conab's yield forecasts will be realized.