Impact of GM soybean planting on Chinese market

The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs publicized the National GM Soybean Variety Certification Standard (Trial), on June 8, 2022, which focuses on technical examinations and serves as a detailed variety certification measure. 

Currently, the measures and standards for the approval of GM seeds are in place. An impact from GM soybean seeds on soybean planting is foreseeable in 2023.

If GM soybeans are planted, soybean yield will increase. Data shows that the unit-yield of U.S. soybeans in 2021 was 461 kg/mu (1 mu = 1/15 hectare), which is roughly 100 kg/mu higher than that of soybeans in northeast China and 40-60 kg/mu higher than that of soybeans in southern China. Moreover, the unit-yield of US soybeans is increasing year by year. From 1993 to the present, the compound annual growth rate of unit yield has been 1.639%. Therefore, if GM soybeans are planted, the total output of soybeans will increase.

GM soybeans have an obvious advantage in consumption. Since 2015, soybean pressing in China has become stabilized at a volume of above 80 million tons. Even in the worst year of 2019, the year of severe African swine fever, China’s soybean pressing volume stayed at above 80 million tons, revealing China’s strong demand for soybeans. According to the data from Mysteel Agricultural Products Team, China’s soybean pressing volume was 75.5025 million tons in 2015, 81.3925 million tons in 2016, 88.1173 million tons in 2017, 86.1218 million tons in 2018, 81.7107 million tons in 2019, 92.2988 million tons in 2020 and roughly 90.10 million tons in 2021. There is a great demand for GM soybeans in China. 

China’s soybean pressing volume from 2015-2021 (10,000 ton)

Promoting the planting of GM soybeans will facilitate an increase in soybean yield and meanwhile grower’s profitability. For example, if the promotion of GM soybean seeds accelerates, the proportion of planting of soybeans and corns may be redistributed.

Concerning the intention of farmers in southern China to grow GM soybeans, about 60% are willing to plant; 15% take no position; about 25% are unwilling to plant. In general, farmers in southern China take an open attitude towards the planting of GM soybeans.