NCC survey suggests U.S. producers to plant 12.0 million acres of cotton in 2022

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 12.0 million cotton acres this spring, up 7.3 percent from 2021, according to the National Cotton Council’s 41st Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. (see table attached)

Upland cotton intentions are 11.9 million acres, up 7.1 percent from 2021, while extra-long staple (ELS) intentions of 158,000 acres represent a 24.8 percent increase. The detailed survey results were announced today during the 2022 National Cotton Council Annual Meeting.

Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis, said, “Planted acreage is just one of the factors that will determine supplies of cotton and cottonseed. Ultimately, weather and agronomic conditions are among the factors that play a significant role in determining crop size.”

Using the 10-year average abandonment rate for each state, Cotton Belt harvested area totals 9.8 million acres for 2022 with a U.S. abandonment rate of 18.9%. Using the five-year average state-level yield per harvested acre generates a cotton crop of 17.3 million bales, with 16.8 million upland bales and 438,000 ELS bales.

The NCC questionnaire, mailed in mid-December 2021 to producers across the 17-state Cotton Belt, asked producers for the number of acres devoted to cotton and other crops in 2021 and the acres planned for the coming season. Survey responses were collected through mid-January.

Campiche noted, “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions. Relative to the average futures prices during the first quarter of 2021, prices of all commodities are trading significantly higher. However, input costs are also much higher than this time last year.”

Southeast respondents indicate a 3.7 percent increase in cotton acreage to 2.4 million acres. In Alabama, survey responses indicate a 5.0 percent increase in cotton acreage. Georgia growers expect to plant 1.3 percent more cotton, while the survey indicates an 8.0 percent increase in North Carolina’s cotton area. South Carolina growers expect to plant 10.0 percent more cotton, with Virginia growers expanding their cotton acreage by 4.7 percent. According to the survey responses, the expected increase in cotton acres is due to a decline in corn acres and peanut acres to a lesser extent. With a 4.0 percent decline, Florida is the only state in the region showing a decrease in cotton acres, with those producers shifting to soybeans.

Mid-South growers intend to plant 1.9 million acres, an increase of 14.6 percent from the previous year. Across the region, all states intend to increase cotton acreage. In Arkansas, respondents indicated a 15.7 percent increase in cotton acreage; Louisiana growers expect to plant 51.2 percent more cotton; in Mississippi, respondents indicated 6.5 percent more cotton acreage; Missouri growers expect to increase cotton acres by 5.9 percent; and Tennessee’s respondents indicated a 21.1 percent increase in cotton. In all states, survey responses suggest that cotton is increasing acres at the expense of corn.

Southwest growers intend to increase cotton acreage by 7.0 percent to 7.4 million acres. Each of the three states plan to increase cotton acres with Kansas up 15.2 percent, Oklahoma increasing by 5.6 percent, and Texas calling for a 6.9 percent increase. Responses indicate a shift from sorghum to cotton, with Texas producers also planting less wheat.

With intentions of 156,000 acres, producers in the West expect to plant 14.1 percent less acres of upland cotton. Upland acreage is expected to decrease in Arizona and California by 22.7 percent and 7.7 percent, respectively. New Mexico growers expect to increase upland acreage by 10.0 percent in 2022. Water constraints continue to affect planting decisions in Arizona and California.

ELS acreage is expected to increase by 24.8 percent in 2022 to 158,000 acres, likely driven by the all-time highs being seen in ELS cotton prices. Respondents indicated an increase of 30.4 percent in California, 5.9 percent in Arizona, 11.0 percent in New Mexico, and 16.3 percent in Texas.

NCC delegates were reminded the expectations are a snapshot of intentions based on market conditions at survey time with actual plantings influenced by changing market conditions and weather. Producers will continue to monitor changes in commodity prices and input costs before finalizing their 2022 acreage decisions. Although cotton prices are higher than in recent years, higher input prices and supply chain disruptions have resulted in significant increases in production costs for 2022. As a result, many producers continue to face difficult economic conditions heading into 2022.

Prospective 2022 U.S. Cotton Area

	2021 Actual (Thou.)  1/	2022 Intended (Thou.)  2/	Percent Change
SOUTHEAST	2,326	2,413	3.7%
Alabama	405	425	5.0%
Florida	91	87	-4.0%
Georgia	1,170	1,186	1.3%
North Carolina	375	405	8.0%
South Carolina	210	231	10.0%
Virginia	75	79	4.7%
MID-SOUTH	1,630	1,868	14.6%
Arkansas	480	555	15.7%
Louisiana	110	166	51.2%
Mississippi	450	479	6.5%
Missouri	315	334	5.9%
Tennessee	275	333	21.1%
SOUTHWEST	6,955	7,440	7.0%
Kansas	110	127	15.2%
Oklahoma	495	523	5.6%
Texas	6,350	6,791	6.9%
WEST	182	156	-14.1%
Arizona	120	93	-22.7%
California	26	24	-7.7%
New Mexico	36	40	10.0%
TOTAL UPLAND	11,093	11,877	7.1%
TOTAL ELS	127	158	24.8%
Arizona	9	10	5.9%
California	88	115	30.4%
New Mexico	13	14	11.0%
Texas	17	20	16.3%
ALL COTTON	11,220	12,035	7.3%