Conab sees no shortage of inputs in 2021-22 Sugarcane harvest, but 2022-23 already registers high prices, slow deliveries

The input crisis, which covers pesticides, fertilizers and machinery and equipment, has drawn the attention of rural producers across the country this year.

In the case of sugarcane, the 2021/22 harvest did not have a significant impact on this scenario, but there is already attention on the new season, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).

"There was no disruption in supply (during the current crop). In this coming crop (2022-23), we do not see anything in that sense, but a higher price and a slower flow. There is no break in supply," Sergio De Zen, Director of Agricultural Policy and Information at Conab, told Notícias Agrícolas, based on the research that the municipality carries out with producers.

On November 23, 2021, the organization cut its estimates for the 2021-22 sugarcane crop in its third survey, highlighting the impact of adverse weather.

Following external issues that affected world production of inputs, Brazil is dependent on other countries, especially with pesticides. These are used to control pests and fertilizers to nourish soils and plants. The situation has called for the attention not only of sugarcane producers but of several other cultures.

According to the National Association for the Diffusion of Fertilizers (ANDA), Brazil consumed 40 million tons of fertilizers in 2020 alone. The value represents a growth of 12% compared to 2019 and the country is the world’s fourth largest consumer of fertilizers, equivalent to 9% of that market worldwide.

Fears about lack of these products have driven actions by Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (Mapa).

"The minister was in Russia, one of the Eastern European countries, precisely taking care that this flow, especially that of fertilizers, is not broken as a result of a global increase in demand," De Zen said in an interview. Minister Tereza Cristina's entourage was in the country at the beginning of the second half of this month.

According to Cristina, both the Russian government and the fertilizer companies that participated in the meetings guaranteed that Brazil will have no problems with the delivery of fertilizers, both potassium and phosphates. If possible, there may still be an increase in exports to Brazil for the next harvest.

Russia represents about 20% of the total of fertilizers imported by Brazil. Recently, the Russian government announced restrictions on nitrogen fertilizer exports through export quotas for six months from December 1, to avoid shortages in the domestic market.

At an event on Tuesday, the minister spoke again about the folder's attention to the supply of fertilizers to meet the end of planting of the current 2021-22 crop and the off-season and to regularize the import of input for next year. The minister should also visit Canada this year to discuss the matter.

"We know that we live in a complicated post-pandemic situation, generating not very good expectations for the sector and with problems around the world with lack of energy. This brought insecurity to Brazilian agriculture, as we are heavily dependent on fertilizers. concern and uncertainty in the market. So, we made a joint assessment with the market and went to Russia," said the minister at the 8th Brazilian Congress of Fertilizers.

Also, during the event, Cristina announced that she would create a group at the Thematic Chamber of Agricultural Inputs to monitor the issue of inputs for the Brazilian crop. The government is also developing the National Fertilizer Plan, which will bring together strategies to reduce long-term and short-term external dependence to mitigate occasional and momentary supply shocks.

Cut in estimate for the 2021-22 Sugarcane crop

The prolonged period of drought, frosts in the middle of the year and fires in sugarcane fields could cause a reduction in production in Brazil in the 2021-22 harvest. Conab spent the current season crushing 568.4 million tonnes, up from 592 million tonnes in the previous survey, with an impact on sugar and ethanol. In the 2020-21 harvest, production was 654.53 million tons.

In addition, the sugarcane crop was reduced in areas in the country, according to De Zen.

“There are areas that you convert to other activities, whether for agronomic or economic reasons. In economic terms, we are coming from a period of profitability for corn and soybeans, and the doubling of these crops leaves more profitable areas. This is perhaps the main explanation for the loss of area,” the director of Conab explained.