FAO Forecasts 2011 World Rice Production

Global rice production is expected to increase to 720 million tonnes (480 million milled), or 3% in 2011, in a recent report released by the United Nation’s FAO. Factors contributing to this growth include improved weather conditions, a shift in imports and government measures to ensure food security.

Asia‘s output will experience a record a 3% growth in 2011 to 651 million tonnes (434 million milled) due to an increase in China and greater yields in Pakistan. The production forecast is also positive in Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Nepal, the Philippines and Vietnam, according to the FAO.

Production estimates in Sri Lanka are not as positive as flooding continues to affect the country. Japan, which is still suffering after an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis, also decreased yield estimates. South American counties such as Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Uruguay and Venezuela have just begun retrieving their main paddy harvests. They are expected to yield 29.2 million tonnes in 2011, a 9.2% increase from 2010.

In the United States, producers are expected to divert land away from rice into more profitable crops, possibly resulting in a 15% drop in the coming season’s output, according to the report.

Imports are expected to increase globally to 31.8 million tonnes, up 350,000 tonnes from a year earlier. Taiwan, Malaysia and other Asian counties will import more in the coming months as demand advances, according to the FAO. While Bangladesh’s production estimate grew, the country still heavily relies on imports.

Governments across the world are becoming more concerned about food security, making efforts to stem food inflation and increase reserves including export restrictions, facilitation of imports, retail price controls and subsidized rice distribution, according to the report. Global rice utilization in 2010-2011 is forecast to rise by 2% to 460 million tonnes (milled basis). About 389 million tonnes of that will be used for consumption, almost 7 million tonnes more than in 2009/10, according to the FAO.