Informa upgrades South American soybean forecasts

US farm officials will on Thursday implement hefty upgrades to estimates for South American soybean crops at least, if a preview from Informa Economics is anything to go by.

Informa analysts lifted by 2.1m tonnes to 71.4m tonnes their forecast for Brazil's soybean crop, the world's second biggest, which would set a record by a margin.

The estimate for Argentine production, the third-ranked crop, was hiked by 3.0m tonnes to 52.0m tonnes.

The upgrades come amid a scramble of revisions as analysts position ahead of the US Department of Agriculture's next monthly Wasde report on world crop supply and demand, a key event of the farm commodities calendar.

Harvest doubts

Many observers are declining to upgrade estimates for the crops.

Informa Economics and (USDA) estimates for South American crops

Argentine soybean production: 52.0m tonnes, (49.5m tonnes)

Brazilian soybean production: 71.4m tonnes, (68.5m tonnes)

Argentine corn production: 21.0m tonnes, (22.0m tonnes)

Brazilian corn production: 53.8m tonnes, (51.0m tonnes)

Informa's estimates came hours after the USDA's Buenos Aires office cautioned against overoptimistic forecasts for the Argentine soybean harvest, warning that drought had in some places not broken sufficient to spare significant yield losses.

Other observers have warned that rainfall in the Brazil, which has halved the pace of harvesting in some northern areas, may take some of the gloss off the crop, with a few reports of quality concerns.

"The northern harvest is slowed by rain, however the southern harvest weather is near ideal," US Commodities said.

Freight costs leap

The weather is also gumming up Brazil's underdeveloped logistics, as harvest delays concentrate demand for lorries, while rains hamper unloading.

Unusually, the two biggest soybean producing states in Brazil, Mato Grosso and Parana, "are harvesting at the same time, and there are not enough trucks", Michael Cordonnier at Soybean and Corn Advisor said.

Freight rates in Mato Grosso have risen 10-15% year on year, with those in Parana up25%.

In-country consultant Kory Melby reported a 12-mile queue of some 1,000 trucks waiting to unload at the port of Paranagua.