After strong start, monsoon rainfall peters out in August; crop sowing remains robust in India

After a strong start in June and July, monsoon rainfalls have started to grow uneven in August and need scrutiny in the coming days since August rains play a pivotal role in crop sowing. However, the acreage to date remains robust and is significantly higher than the last year levels, a report said on Friday. 

“The week started off with below par rainfall, then the final two days witnessed strong bursts. Progress of the monsoon over the next few weeks needs close monitoring,” a report by Barclays India said. During 1 June to 6 August, the cumulative rainfall has been on par with the long-period average (LPA). Just a few days back, the long period average rainfall was higher by over 40%.

Overall, 30 out of the 36 geographical areas in the country are receiving normal to above normal rainfall. Those areas which have received short rainfalls are largely covered by canals, limiting any negative impact of the sparse rainfall in these areas. Regions which have received lower rainfall include Western UP, Eastern Rajasthan and Gujarat. Also, water levels in reservoirs also play a critical role in agriculture. As of 6

August, storage levels in 123 water reservoirs, which supply most of the canals in India, stood at 45% of capacity; this is 108% of the year-earlier level and 94% of the average over the past 10 years, the report said.

Meanwhile, the agricultural sector has been emerging as a relief to the battered economy. In its Monetary Policy Meeting on Thursday, the Reserve Bank of India said that agriculture has emerged as “a bright spot” amid the coronavirus pandemic even as the overall economy remains volatile. The upliftment of the agriculture sector also holds key to demand revival in rural areas which are key to industries such as FMCG, tractors etc. 

As of 31 July, around 88.2 millon hectares of land has been sowed, which is significantly higher than the around 77.4 million hectares sown last year during the same period. However, the progress of rainfall in August will have a significant bearing on crop output for the year.