Monsoon progress could hurt India further

A hefty economic contraction induced by the global health crisis may not be the only challenge India has to handle this year. Going by the monsoon’s progress, things do not look very bright for the already-stressed agriculture sector. At least 219 districts (around 30%) have recorded deficient rainfall since the onset of the Southwest monsoon. Cumulative data shows that four states received deficient rainfall between June 1 and July 28, the shortfall ranging from 20% to 59%.

The July rainfall makes this scenario even more critical with eight districts in the red zone. Madhya Pradesh has a 44% rain deficit, Rajasthan recorded a 36% shortfall and Odisha 31%. Even Kerala, the monsoon state of India, is reeling with a 40% deficiency in July itself. A big state like Uttar Pradesh, which is in the normal rainfall category, also has reason to worry, with 28 out of its 75 districts in the deficit zone.

If this news is not bad enough, an American agency has now projected a drop in rainfall over the north-central regions of the country. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a strong probability of a decrease in the occurrence of monsoon low pressure systems. The systems are not just the primary monsoon rain triggers over the subcontinent, they also account for more than half the annual precipitation in the north and central parts of the country, the NOAA said, adding that it may have far-reaching socio-economic consequences.

This does not augur well for the farm sector as agriculture will have to play a major role in the recovery of the Indian economy after the back-breaking impact of the coronavirus. If the NOAA projections hold right, a drought cannot be ruled out in many parts of the country. It is the farming community that would feel the heat of the weather as well as the market in case of such an eventuality. The recent reforms brought in by the government to the Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee Act and Essential Commodities Act may have come at the nick of time, but a closer vigil must be maintained over the monsoon’s progress and impact.