North Indian states facing rain deficit

Northern India is facing a rainfall deficit, which can impact crop growth in the grain-bowl states of Punjab and Haryana unless the monsoon strengthens quickly in the region.

Rainfall in the past week has been 34-47 per cent below normal in Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, and even weaker in the Himalayan states.

The situation is still manageable as most parts of north India received adequate rainfall in June, except in western UP where it has been one-third less than the normal this season.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects rainfall to be “subdued” in the region until at least the end of this week, but things are expected to improve subsequently. “Western disturbances are currently busy bringing heavy rainfall to east and north-east India,” Sivananda Pai, head of long-range forecasting at IMD said.

However, a low pressure area is likely to develop near north India in the co ming days, bringing relief with it. “A trough will move northwards, bringing thunderstorms with it to the regions west of the Himalayas,” Pai said. UP, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, and Chandigarh will see its effects by next week, he said. Rajasthan will also get some rainfall after the low pressure area which is currently bringing excessive rainfall to Gujarat passes northwards. So far, northern and north-western India is the only broad region in the country where total rainfall since June 1has been slightly below normal. The monsoon has been vigorous in the rest of the country, making total rainfall across India this season 14 per cent above normal.

LA NINA EFFECT

Meteorologists also expect heavier rainfall later in the June-September season as the rain-boosting La Nina phenomenon is developing in the Pacific Ocean. While this will ensure good crop growth it also increases the threat of floods in some parts of the country. Last year, heavy rain towards the end of the season led to a shortage of onions that triggered a price rise.

The IMD's pre-monsoon forecast had predicted above-normal rainfall for the months of June to September, which brings in the bulk of India's annual rainfall. This year's monsoon season is said to be more important than the previous ones, as the agricultural sector seems to be the only bright spot that might revive the economy, otherwise left battered by the lockdown.