Price & Supply Trend: Chinese suppliers required to keep reasonable stock levels of inventory as matter of urgency

It is now the traditional peak agricultural production season, when market turnover should be increasing daily. However, due to the lack of overseas market demand, while domestic production load is increasing step by step, the current market supply tends to be stable. At present, stocks of major products still remain stable with a tendency to decline while niche products are in short supply due to low stock levels and insufficient production since Chinese New Year, resulting in high prices.

 

 

Affected by price decreases in nonselective herbicide technicals, products whose prices have increased at a higher rate include nicosulfuron technical (+ 8.57%), fluroxypyr-mepthyl technical (+ 7.0%) and 2,4-D technical 6.9%). Products whose prices decreased at higher rates include pendimethalin (- 7.7%) and fomesafen (- 5.0%).

 

Over the month, the price of glyphosate technical hit rock bottom, and stocks acquired at lower prices before the New Year have been depleted, but its market price has started to rebound. The diquat mother liquid season is coming, but purchase orders from overseas markets have not appeared to be active. Pendimethalin technical production capacity has increased, though stocks are being depleted gradually, but the pesticide application season in Xinjiang has come to an end for the moment and demand is temporarily over. Due to the impact of environmental compliance regulations, trifluralin production capacity is low, and the product is mainly supplied for export. The production of mesotrione technical has started, and the number of manufacturers who can supply the product has increased gradually, beginning market competition. The price of bentazone rose slightly this month, due to the price increase in its upstream raw material, while purchase orders for cyhalofop-butyl begun to increase when manufacturers have intended to keep down the market price, due to the relieved supply of upstream raw materials. The price of clodinafop-propargyl has fallen to a certain extent, but is still at a high level. Clethodim technical production capacity is low but market demand is increasing, while there is a shortage of (3-trans-chloroallyl) oxyamine and ethanethiol, therefore, market prices remains high and supply is relatively tight. The production capacity of quizalofop-p-ethyl has increased while its downstream export demand is weak. Nicosulfuron is in short supply, stocks are low and demand has escalated. Stocks of fluroxypyr-mepthyl is at a low level, while its production capacity is low and its price is rising. Amide herbicide production capacity is restricted and supply is tight. Stocks of 2,4-D technical have decreased, while purchase orders to manufacturers have increased. Affected by the situation in India, its price increased this month. There are few manufacturers of oxadiazon that have started production, so there is a major gap to be filled in terms of export orders, and supply is still very tight. Atrazine technical replenishment has started, and its manufacturers have large amounts of stock, while the product’s quotation has started to decline.

 

Herbicide products with major price fluctuations

Product（TC）	100% basis/ actual concentration	Price trend (YOY)
2,4-D	98%	↓
Bensulfuron	96%	↓
Glyphosate	95%	↓
Diuron	97%	↓
Fomesafen	100% basis	↓
Haloxyfop-P-methyl	97%	↓
Cyhalofop-butyl	97%	↓
Prodiamine	97%	↑
Nicosulfuron	95%	↑
Clomazone	100% basis	↑

 

Insecticide prices have fallen by 19% year on year, except for several products that have experienced higher rates of price rises, which are cypermethrin technical (+ 16.7%), pymetrozine technical (+ 15.0%), lufenuron technical (+ 6.9%), beta-cypermethrin technical (+ 5.9%) and bifenazate technical (+ 5.8%) that are all still in short supply. Products that have higher rates of price falls include chlorfenapyr (- 7.1%), etoxazole (- 5.3%) and chlorpyrifos (- 5.3%). 

 

Emamectin benzoate technical remains stable, for which a large number of purchase orders have been placed for export. Neonicotinoid technical has a high stock level while its price has stayed low due to depressed export demand. There are still stocks of imidacloprid technical, while the price of intermediate of acetamiprid technical remains high but demand is just normal. The price of nitenpyram is declining. Thiamethoxam production capacity is low and supply is slightly tight. The price of clothianidin was increased by manufacturers, and it is produced mainly for export. Dinotefuran technical has attracted greater attention while its production capacity is restricted. Affected by the pandemic in India, the price of the upstream m-Phenoxybenzaldehyde of pyrethroids has increased and stocks have decreased. Stocks of pymetrozine are being depleted, but its short supply is not mitigated and is expected to still remain tight. Flonicamid technical experienced explosive sales in the terminal market, where trading volume greatly increased after more registrations were granted. Bifenazate technical and methoxyfenozide technical are both facing the pressure of centralized production while their production capacities are low and supplies tight due to the pandemic. There are more active chlorfenapyr factories that are not legally compliant, which is disturbing the market and have caused a price fall over the month. With the forthcoming pesticide application season, market trading volume is picking up. At present, this industry sector has become a focus of attention and concern. The price of malathion is still high, due to increased purchase orders for the purpose of countering the locust plague.

 

Insecticide products with major price fluctuations

Product（TC）	100% basis/ actual concentration	Price trend (YOY)
Imidacloprid	96%	↓
Chlorfenapyr	97%	↓
Acetamiprid	97%	↓
Lambda-cyhalothrin	96%	↓
Nitenpyram	95%	↓
Etoxazole	97%	↓
Pymetrozine	97%	↑
Bifenazate	97%	↑
Spirodiclofen	97%	↑
Omethoate	100% basis	↑

 

The main fungicide production regions are mainly distributed in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Due to earlier environmental compliance regulatory policies, production capacity has been low, so stocks of triazole technical, cyazofamid technical, prochloraz technical and trifloxystrobin technical are at low levels, resulting in short supply. 

 

Difenoconazole technical production capacity is low, with stocks staying at a low level while its price is rising as a gap in demand still exists. Demand for hexaconazole technical has increased while production capacity is low, resulting in short supply for a limited period of time. Tebuconazole technical manufacturers are running at low capacities, with stocks staying at low levels, while upstream intermediates are running high and production capacity has increased to some extent. Epoxiconazole technical production capacity is low, resulting in an extremely short supply situation. Pyraclostrobin technical production has been affected by the suspended supply of mixture-purpose triazole technical, and downstream factories are not active in placing orders. Production capacity and supply have increased, so manufacturers may face the pressure of competition at a later stage. Kresoxim-methylthe technical manufacturers have mostly halted production, with very few stocks being available. Trifloxystrobin technical production has not started, and stocks available on the market are low and still in a short supply situation. There is an issue with the import of raw materials for kresoxim-methyl technical and trifloxystrobin technical, which may still continue to be in short supply for a certain period of time. Manufacturers of carbendazim technical and thiophanate-methyl technical are under great pressure due to environmental compliance regulations but are still running as normal. Fluazinam technical manufacturers are quite centralized and the season for purchase orders is coming, but the market is currently monitoring its progress with the price currently going down. Cyazofamid manufacturers are running at low capacity, but there are few stocks available on the market and supply is tight. 

 

Fungicide products with major price fluctuations

Product（TC）	100% basis/ actual concentration	Price trend (YOY)
Chlorothalonil	98%	↓
Propiconazole	95%	↓
Boscalid	97%	↓
Hymexazol	98%	↓
Thiram	96%	↓
Prochloraz	96%	↓
Azoxystrobin	98%	↓
Difenoconazole	96%	↑
Cyazofamid	95%	↑
Tebuconazole	97%	↑

 

 

Over the month, the price of crude oil has stayed low, which could not back up the cost and supply of basic chemical raw materials. During the month, actual CCMP transactions have declined, and CCMT market supplies have decreased while prices remain unchanged. The prices of pyrethroid intermediates, such as dimethyl-4-pentenoic acid methyl ester and lambda-cyhalothric acid, have slightly gone up, while the price of m-Phenoxybenzaldehyde is rising due to the impact of Indian supply levels, which may still change at a later stage.

 

At present, the market has mobilized and stocks of major products are sufficient, but the stock levels of niche products are low, leading to an increase in prices of these products, where big gaps exist. 

 

The global pandemic has affected the demand for exports and imports of raw materials, which has interfered with the domestic supply situation and will add to the market’s future uncertainties. For domestic enterprises, it is a matter of urgency to press ahead with the planned re-establishment of the supply chain, to ensure reasonable levels of inventory.