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Cotton planting area in Australia forecast the lowest since 2007-08
Sep. 16, 2019
Prospects for Australian winter crop production in 2019–20 deteriorated over winter because of unfavourable growing conditions in some regions, particularly in New South Wales and Queensland, according to Australian crop report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Crop prospects vary considerably between the states. In Victoria, most crops are in good to very good condition at the beginning of spring as a result of generally favourable growing conditions over winter. Timely winter rainfall in Western Australia boosted yield prospects to around average for most crops in the state after a late break to the season. Crop prospects in South Australia are mixed but sufficient winter rainfall fell in most major southern growing regions and the Mid-North for crops in these regions to be in reasonable condition at the beginning of spring. However, crop prospects are generally below average in most northern cropping regions in South Australia. Seasonal conditions were very unfavourable in most cropping regions in New South Wales and Queensland and winter crop production in these states is forecast to be very much below average.
As in every season, early spring rainfall will be important to final crop outcomes. According to the latest seasonal outlook, issued by the Bureau of Meteorology on 29 August 2019, September rainfall is likely to be above average in Western Australia and below average in most other cropping regions. October rainfall is likely to be below average in most cropping regions.
Winter crop production is forecast to rise by 11% in 2019–20 to 33.9 million tonnes, which is a downward revision of 7% from the forecast ABARES published in June. Forecast production is around 16% below the 10 year average to 2018–19.
Wheat production is forecast to increase by 10% to around 19.1 million tonnes, 22% below the 10 year average to 2018–19. Barley production is forecast to increase by 14% to around 9.5 million tonnes, 6% above the 10 year average to 2018–19. Canola production is forecast to increase by 6% to around 2.3 million tonnes, 29% below the 10 year average to 2018–19.
Total area planted to winter crops is estimated to have increased by 6% in 2019–20 to around 19.1 million hectares. This reflects the large amount of crop area that was taken out of grain production in 2018–19 and cut for hay.
Area planted to summer crops is forecast to fall by 28% in 2019–20 to around 758,000 hectares. This reflects low levels of soil moisture and an outlook for unfavourable seasonal conditions during spring in Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to decline by 21% in 2019–20 to 391,000 hectares, which is 30% below the ten year average to 2018–19. This forecast fall is due to low soil moisture levels in southern Queensland, which are expected to fall further during spring. However, this is partially offset by improved soil moisture levels and favourable seasonal conditions forecast for spring in some parts of central Queensland. Additionally, falling cotton prices are likely to result in a shift from dry land cotton to grain sorghum. Production is forecast to fall by 22% to 992,000 tonnes. Yields are assumed to average slightly lower than in 2018–19.
Area planted to cotton is forecast to fall by 58% to 145,000 hectares because dams servicing cotton growing regions have significantly less water than last year. Area forecast to be planted to cotton is the lowest since 2007–08, when 63,000 hectares was planted. Production is forecast to decline by 39% to around 294,000 tonnes of lint and 416,000 tonnes of cottonseed. Lint yields are forecast to average higher because almost all planting is expected to be irrigated.
Area planted to rice is forecast to remain largely unchanged at low levels in response to low water allocations.
Source: ABARES
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