Canada: Pulse and special crops outlook

For 2010-11, total area seeded to pulse and special crops (P&SC) in Canada is forecast to increase by 16% from 2009-10 according to Statistics Canada’s survey conducted in May. However due to the excessive rain, a significant portion of this area did not get seeded and will not be harvested. The total area harvested is forecast to be only marginally higher than 2009-10 with a significant decrease in area harvested for peas and lentils. Excess moisture will also decrease the average yield per harvested acre and increase the incidence of disease, pests and weed issues. Normal weather conditions have been assumed for the remainder of the growing and harvest periods. The majority of the impact of the increase in area seeded, as reported by Statistics Canada will be offset by high abandonment and lower yields.

The total production of P&SC is forecast to decrease by 13% to 4.9 million tonnes Mt). Supply is forecast to decrease less dramatically due to high carry-in stocks. Total exports are forecast to increase but only marginally as higher exports of peas are largely offset by lower exports of lentils. Average prices are generally forecast to decrease due to slow world economic conditions. The main factors to watch are: commodity prices, input costs, the Canada-US dollar exchange rate and crop development in the major producing regions.

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