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NATESC：total pesticide demand in 2018 will be stable and decline a little in China
Jan. 12, 2018
Prediction on diseases, pests and weeds in 2018
1. Keys in rice diseases, pests and weeds: rice planthoppers, rice leaf rollers, borers and rice blast.
2. Keys in wheat diseases, pests and weeds: fusarium blight, stripe rust and aphids during earring.
3. Keys in corn diseases, pests and weeds: armyworms, cotton bollworms, corn borers and northern leaf blight.
4. Keys in potato diseases and pests: late blight.
Under large effect from climate factors, the above diseases and pests bear the high epidemic risk. Weeds in agricultural fields will strike seriously and special attention should be paid to resistant weeds in rice fields. Rats will strike on a medium scale and special attention should be paid to rats in regions where the planting structure is under adjustment.
In addition, the NATESC pointed out two special diseases that demand attention: melon bacterial fruit blotch and orange branch canker.
In 1998, the first report about melon bacterial fruit blotch appeared, which has become serious in recent years and covers 16 regions in China like Hainan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Taiwan. Prevention should be done.
Orange branch canker occurs in 391 counties in 12 regions in China including Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Fujian, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan and Chongqing. It severely affects the yield and quality of oranges and demands high attention from plant protection departments.
The resistant weeds problem is still serious
It is shown in monitoring results that pesticide-resistant weeds in rice, wheat and corn fields are featured with a variety, rising resistance level, expanding occurrence area, heavy damage and fast development. Direct-sowing paddy fields suffer the most from pesticide-resistant weeds. Barnyardgrass has generated serious resistance against penoxsulam in Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi and Anhui. The appearance of resistant barnyardgrass has made products like penoxsulam, bispyribac-sodium, quinclorac and pyribenzoxim almost ineffective.
It is predicted that the total pesticide demand in 2018 will be stable and decline a little
Insecticides: the predicted demand volume (calculated by 100% technical) is 80,000-90,000 tonnes, decreasing by around 10% over 2017. That of organophosphorus will drop to a large degree, by about 10% year on year; that of carbamate insecticides is predicted to decrease by 16%. The top five products by use volume are dichlorvos, chlorpyrifos, phoxim, trichlorfon and bisultap.
Acaricides: the predicted demand volume (calculated by 100% technical) is 10,000 tonnes, increasing by 3% year on year. Products with growth rate of over 10% include mineral oil, propargite, fenpyroximate and clofentezine.
Fungicides: the predicted demand volume (calculated by 100% technical) is 75,000-85,000 tonnes, the same level as last year. The top five products by demand volume are copper sulfate, ethylene bisdithio carbomate (carbendazim, mancozeb, maneb, metiram and zineb), thiophanate-methyl and chlorothalonil. Products with the growth rate of over 30% include azoxystrobin, prothioconazole, pyraclostrobin, brevibacterium, thifluzamide, fenaminstrobin, tebuconazole and some bio-pesticides. The NATESC specially pointed out that due to long-term use, the effect of prochloraz has been impaired in some regions. It suggests that farmers shift to other products.
Herbicides: the predicted demand volume (calculated by 100% technical) is 100,000-110,000 tonnes, up by 3% year on year. The top five products by demand volume are glyphosate, acetochlor, atrazine, butachlor and 2,4-D butylate. Products with the growth rate of over 30% include penoxsulam, fluoroglycofen-ethyl, propisochlor, cyhalofop-butyl and rimsulfuron. The top five provinces by use volume of penoxsulam are Heilongjiang, Hunan, Hubei, Anhui and Sichuan.
Plant growth regulators: the predicted demand volume (calculated by 100% technical) is 3,500-4,000 tonnes, growing by 18% year on year. The top five products by demand volume are ethephon, paclobutrazol, mepiquat chloride, gibberellin, uniconazole and brassinolide.
Demand for highly-efficient plant protection machine goes up steadily
In 2018, the demand for highly-efficient plant protection machine is strong and unmanned aerial vehicle flights for plant protection keeps warming up. It is predicted that the demand volume is around 8,000 pieces, with a work area reaching 13.3 million ha. Affected by this, the demand for self-propelled sprayers keeps stable but that of self-propelled sprayers for orchards grows.
Policies lead the healthy development of the pesticide industry
In 2017, the newly released Pesticide Management Regulations and Opinions on Strengthening and Management and Promotion of Healthy Development of Pesticide Industry aim to speed up the transformation and upgrading of the industry, phasing out of highly-polluting and highly-risky inefficient capacities and inhibit the blind expansion and repetitive construction by pesticide enterprises.
It is also mentioned the concentration rate of the industry shall be improved by ordering new pesticide enterprises to locate their factories in provincial-level or above chemical parks, the relocation or expansion of pesticide technical production line scale by pesticide enterprises to enter city-level or above chemical parks.
Efforts shall be made to actively cultivate large enterprise groups, support enterprise mergers and reorganizations to phase out some weak producers.
The market promotes the change of pesticide marketing modes
Currently, the marketing channel of pesticides is still dominated by the mode of “producers-wholesalers-retailers”. However, the market competition has been worsened and profit space narrowed. In recent years, there have been three major changes on the market.
1. The land transfer has been speeding up, and the planting area of big growers and cooperatives is getting bigger and bigger, which changes the purchase means of agricultural means of production like pesticides.
2. The crop area under professional and unified prevention and control of pests and diseases has been increasing. Some pesticide engagers have transformed into comprehensive service providers by helping farmers spray their pesticides from only selling pesticides to farmers. Large and professional prevention and control service providers normally choose to purchase big-package pesticides from pesticide producers other than from the intermediate dealers.
3. The development of unmanned aerial vehicle flights for plant protection is fast. Some pesticide enterprises cooperate with organizations of unmanned aerial vehicle flights by purchasing pesticides from enterprises and spraying pesticides under the help of those organizations, which makes a win-win case for pesticide sale and plant protection by aerial vehicle.
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