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Conab trims Brazilian soybean crop forecast, lifts corn prospects
Nov. 17, 2016
Conab, the Brazilian crop agency, cut its forecast for the country's soybean crop, due to unhelpful weather in the south of the country.
But Conab lifted its idea of first-crop corn, and teased the possibility of further upgrades to come.
The agency forecast Brazil's 2016-2017 soybean crop at 101.6-103.5m tonnes, compared to a 101.9-104.0m tonnes forecast in October.
Dry weather in south
Production prospects in the Centre West agricultural heartland was left unchanged from last month.
But production in the south was hit by dry weather, particularly in the state of Parana.
"The first areas sown (Parana), suffered establishment problems caused by the lack of rains in September and October," Conab said.
But dryness problems have eased since then, thanks to rising rainfall in the region.
No pest pressure in grain-belt
In Mato Grosso do Sul, soybean planted area is up 1-4% year on year, Conab said.
But most of the new area under cultivation is likely to be on pasture land "where yields are expected to be lower than traditional farmland," Conab said.
According to the state's agricultural institute Imea, soybean sowing has been at a record pace this year, and is now 80% complete, compared to 60% last year.
"Up to this stage of implementation, no cases of serious pest or disease occurrence have been reported in the early stages of soybean cultivation," Conab said.
Brazilian soybean exports forecast was left unchanged, at 57.0m tonnes, up 5.0m tonnes year on year.
Stronger first-crop corn
Brazilian corn prospects were lifted, thanks to better production for the first-crop corn.
First-crop corn is sown early in the season, as opposed to the safrinha crop which is planted after soybean crops.
Brazil's total 2016-2017 corn crop output seen 83.1-84.6m tonnes, compared to the 82.3-83.8m tonnes forecast in October.
Brazil 2016-2017 first corn crop output seen 27.1-28.6m tonnes, against the 26.3-27.7m tonnes forecast in October.
And in Minas Gerais, the top grower of first crop corn, Conab said it is "possible that the increase in corn planting to show even greater in coming surveys, when the intention of planting is better defined".
Conab left its Brazilian 2016-2017 corn export forecast unchanged, at 24.0m tonnes, compared to 18.5m tonnes last year.
Source: Agrimoney
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