EU slashes rapeseed outlook

The European Commission recently cut its rapeseed harvest estimate by 5.5 percent but said the soft wheat would be above average although a little smaller than previously forecast.

Wheat harvesting is under way in the European Union and grain markets are weighing the risk of crop damage in France against signs of bumper yields in countries such as Romania.

In oilseeds, the Commission sharply lowered its rapeseed crop estimate to 20.8 million tonnes from 22 million, putting the crop at a four-year low.

“Yields were affected among others by the cold spell in April in France, the pressure of disease following the excessive rainfalls of May-June in continental Western Europe and dry conditions in northern-eastern Germany,” it said.
However, total oilseed output in the EU was expected to be almost unchanged from last year at 31.6 million tonnes, supported by better yield prospects for the soybean crop.

The Commission projected usable soft wheat production in the EU at 144.6 million tonnes, down from 145.1 million in its previous estimate a month ago.

This confirmed an expected sharp fall from last year’s record 151.6 million tonnes, but would still be five percent above the average production of the past five years, according to data in an agricultural market report posted on the Commission website.

“Despite recent heavy rains across main grains producing regions in the EU, the coming cereal harvest could be the third bumper crop in a row,” the Commission said.

The 28-country EU is collectively the world’s biggest wheat grower and exporter.

Countries including Spain, Romania and Hungary were seeing particularly good conditions for cereals, in contrast to weather setbacks further north, notably rain and storms in France and Germany that have flattened some crops and fuelled the spread of crop disease, it said.

The EU’s executive arm raised slightly its outlook for this year’s barley production to 62.4 million tonnes from 62.2 million, which is above last year’s 60.6 million.

It cut its forecast for grain corn production to 65.2 million tonnes from 65.8 million previously, but this would still be well above a weather-hit 2015 crop of 58 million.

The expected rebound in maize output would support a slight rise in total cereal production to 312.8 million tonnes from 310.3 million last year.