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Ukraine woes won't drag world wheat area much lower
Dec. 7, 2015
The International Grains Council, flagging dryness in Ukraine, said that wheat sowings would fall further than it had previously expected - but the decline will still be marginal, with Indian and Kazakh farmers piling on acres.
The intergovernmental group, in its second formal estimate for wheat area the 2016 harvest, forecast it at 221.8m hectares a three-year low, but a decline of a modest 1.4m hectares year on year.
That compared with expectations last month of a 1.2m-hectare drop in area, with the council highlighting the setback to Ukrainian sowings prospects from persistently dry weather since the summer.
"Due to overly dry conditions in central and eastern Ukraine, farmers are unlikely to seed all of their intended area," the IGC said.
"Amid low soil moisture, some plantings were unusually late, and a smaller-than-normal percentage of the crop has sprouted so far."
Differing former Soviet Union fortunes
The council forecast a drop of 18% to 5.8m hectares in Ukraine's wheat area for the 2016 harvest, with area lost in the autumn sowings programme unlikely to be made up in the spring to wheat, with farmers typically looking to alternative crops, such as corn and sunflowers, for that planting window.
However, it forecast only a 200,000-hectare drop to 25.0m hectares in sowings in Russia, where late-October rains "brought some relief" to dry areas in the south of the country, although concerns remain about crop in central areas.
And in neighbouring Kazakhstan mainly a grower of spring-planted wheat - sowings will rise by 1.0m hectares to a three-year high of 12.5m hectares, with India also seeing a notable increase in area, of 500,000 hectares to 31.1m hectares, despite some concerns over dry soils.
'Low prices discouraging farmers'
In the European Union, the top wheat producer, the IGC forecast a small decline of 200,000 hectares to 26.4m hectares in area in line with an estimate of 26.6m hectares, including durum wheat, from Paris-based analysis group Strategie Grains.
Like Strategie Grains, the council highlighted "favourable" conditions.
The US is seen witnessing a bigger drop in wheat area for the 2016 harvest, of 500,000 hectares to a three-year low of 18.6m hectares.
"With low prices discouraging some farmers from planting wheat, area is seen falling."
Source: Agrimoney
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