AgroPages-Australia forecasts 2015-16 summer crop area up 1%-Agricultural news

Area planted to summer crops in 2015–16 is forecast to increase by 1% to around 1.1 million hectares, reflecting a forecast increase in area planted to cotton, according to Australian Crop Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) in September. Total summer crop production is forecast to fall by 2% to 3.9 million tonnes, reflecting an assumed fall in average yields from 2014–15.

August rainfall was average to above average in most major summer cropping regions in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland. This rainfall increased the level of upper layer soil moisture, which is important for crop planting and establishment.

Area planted to grain sorghum is forecast to be largely unchanged in 2015–16 at 651,000 hectares. This reflects an outlook for average spring rainfall in growing regions. Assuming a return to average yields, production is forecast to fall by 4% to 2 million tonnes.

Area planted to cotton is forecast to increase by 6% in 2015–16 to 214,000 hectares in response to expected favourable returns from growing cotton, compared with alternative crops. Australian cotton production is forecast to rise by 4% to 470,000 tonnes of cotton lint and 665,000 tonnes of cottonseed. The average storage level of public irrigation dams serving cotton growing regions was around 37% of capacity on 21 August 2015, similar to the level at the same time in 2014.

Area planted to rice is forecast to fall by 7% in 2015–16 to 66,000 hectares, reflecting an expected fall in supply of water available for irrigating rice. Production is forecast to decline by 10% to around 655,000 tonnes, largely reflecting the forecast fall in planted area.

Australia summer crop area (000 ha)
Crop	2015–16 (forecast)	2014-15 (estimate)	change%
Grain sorghum	651	651	-
Cotton¹	214	202	+5.9
Rice	66	71	-7.0
Corn	66	67	-
Soybean	31	27	-13.5
Sunflower	23	24	-
Note: ¹Cotton area is estimated harvested area. Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Winter crop

Favourable seasonal conditions in most cropping regions in Australia during winter have resulted in improved prospects for 2015–16 winter crop production. Total winter crop production is forecast to rise by 8% in 2015–16 to 41.4 million tonnes, largely as a result of forecast production increases in Western Australia and New South Wales.

For the major winter crops, wheat production is forecast to increase by 7% in 2015–16 to 25.3 million tonnes and barley production is forecast to rise by 8% to 8.6 million tonnes. In contrast, canola production is forecast to fall by 9% to around 3.1 million tonnes, driven by an estimated 13% fall in planted area. Among other crops, production of oats and pulses is forecast to increase in 2015–16 because of an estimated increase in planted area and generally higher forecast yields. Oats production is forecast to increase by 30% to 1.4 million tonnes and chickpea production is forecast to increase by 78% to 990,000 tonnes, reflecting very high chickpea prices at planting time.