AgroPages-Cotton area in Australia forecast to rise by 19% in 2015/16-Agricultural news

Cotton area in Australia forecast to rise by 19% in 2015/16

The total area planted to grains and oilseeds in Australia is forecast to remain largely unchanged in 2015/16 at 22.4 million hectares, according to Australian Agricultural commodities Report published by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES). The area planted to wheat and canola is forecast to increase at the expense of barley, reflecting anticipated relative returns. The area planted to wheat is estimated to increase by 0.6% to 13.89 million hectares in 2015/16 and the area of canola is forecasted to rise by 1.6% to 2.755 million hectares. These forecast changes in area planted assume average seasonal conditions towards and during the Australian winter cropping planting window from April to July. Drier than average conditions would be likely to result in a fall in area planted to canola in favour of cereals.

Australia crop area (000 ha)
Crop	2015–16 (forecast)	2014-15 (forecast)	change%
Wheat	13,890	13,808	+0.6
Barley	3,699	3,810	-2.9
Oats	750	718	+4.5
Triticale	160	152	+5.3
Grain sorghum	625	604	+3.5
Corn	66	66	-
Canola	2,755	2,711	+1.6
Sunflower	26	25	+4.0
Cotton¹	250	210	+19.0
Note: ¹Cotton area is estimated harvested area. Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Australian wheat production is forecast to rise by 3% in 2015/16 to 24.4 million tonnes, driven by an assumed increase in yields in eastern Australia from the below average yields in 2014/15. Barley production is forecast to fall by 6% to around 7.5 million tonnes, reflecting a forecast fall in planted area. Canola production is forecast to fall by 4% to 3.3 million tonnes as a result of an assumed 6% decline in the average yield more than offsetting an expected 2% increase in area planted.

Australian cotton production is forecast to be 470,000 tonnes in 2014/15, compared with 885,000 tonnes in 2013/14. The area planted to cotton is estimated to have declined by 46% to 210,000 hectares in response to relatively low cotton prices and dry seasonal conditions. Dry seasonal conditions in the lead-up to planting resulted in low soil moisture profiles, which restricted sowing to irrigated areas in 2014/15. The average storage of public irrigation dams serving cotton growing regions of Australia declined from 44% of total capacity on 12 February 2014 to 35% on the same date in 2015. Current dam levels are 5 percentage points below the 10-year average to 2010.

Assuming a return to normal seasonal run-off between now and the start of the next planting window, in September 2015, the level of irrigation water in dams is expected to increase and support higher cotton production in 2015/16. Australian cotton production is forecast to rise by 19% in 2015/16 to around 560,000 tonnes, reflecting a 19% increase in planted area to 250,000 hectares and the assumption of average yield. Despite an assumed improvement in seasonal conditions in 2015/16, a larger increase in the area planted to cotton is expected to be constrained by relatively low returns for cotton compared with alternative crops (particularly grain sorghum).