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China corn affected by drought in 2014/15

USDA estimates China’s 2014/15 corn planning area of 36.8 million hectares, up 1.3% from last year. Corn area has shown a strong upward trend in recent years, particularly in the Northeast, as farmers have switched from less-profitable crops such as soybeans to corn. The estimated yield of 5.9 tons per hectare is down from last year’s record yield of 6.02 tons per hectare.

Drought conditions developed in July and August in several important corn-producing provinces in Northeast China and the North China Plain. The hardest-hit provinces included Henan (9% of total corn production), Liaoning (7%), Hebei (8%), and Inner Mongolia (9%), as well as parts of Jilin (13%), and Shandong (10%.)

Total rainfall in July and early August was as low as 50% of normal in these areas, and Chinese officials described the resulting drought as the worst in several decades. Water levels in rivers and reservoirs fell dramatically, hindering irrigation efforts. At its peak in late August, the drought affected approximately 5 million hectares of cropland, a majority of which was planted to corn. The drought occurred while the corn crop was in the reproductive/filling stages, when plants are very sensitive to water stress.

Among the mitigating factors were the return of near-normal rainfall in late August and early September to most corn-growing areas, the lack of serious storm or insect damage this summer, seasonable temperatures (few days of excessive heat), and generally favorable weather in Heilongjiang (China’s top corn producing province – 14% of total output) and central/southern China.