Global status of commercialized biotech/GM crops in 2013(Part 3)

Nitrogen Use Efficiency

About 100 million tons of N fertilizer is used on crops at an annual cost of US$50 billion. Up to half of the N applied is not taken up by the crops and causes pollution, particularly in waterways. Conventional and biotech approaches are being explored for increasing  N use efficiency. Some indications that in the midterm (5 to 10 years) new technology could save up to half of N currently applied to crops with no yield penalty.

Regulation of biotech crops and labeling

The lack of appropriate, science-based and cost/time-effective regulatory systems continues to be the major constraint to adoption. Responsible, rigorous but not onerous, regulation is needed, particularly for small and poor developing countries, who are “locked out”completely because of the high cost of developing and gaining approval of a biotech crop. It is noteworthy, that on 6 November 2012, in California, USA, voters defeated Proposition 37, the proposed state petition on “Mandatory Labeling of Genetically Engineered Food Initiative” – the final result was No 53.7% and Yes 46.3%. A similar poll in Washington State in November 2013 had a similar outcome except that the result had wider margins in favor of no labelling -- 55% No and 45% Yes.

Status of approved events for biotech crops

As of 30 November 2013, a total of 36 countries (35 + EU-27) have granted regulatory approvals for biotech crops for food and/or feed use and for environmental release or planting since 1994. In these 36 countries, a total of 2,833 regulatory approvals involving 27 GM crops and 336 GM events have been issued by competent authorities, of which 1,321 are for food use (direct use or processing), 918 for feed use (direct use or processing) and 599 for environmental release or planting. Japan has the most number of events approved (198), followed by the U.S.A. (165 not including stacked events), Canada (146), Mexico (131), South Korea (103), Australia (93), New Zealand (83), European Union (71 including approvals that have expired or under renewal process), Philippines (68), Taiwan (65), Colombia (59), China (55) and South Africa (52). Maize has the most number of approved events (130 events in 27 countries), followed by cotton (49 events in 22 countries), potato (31 events in 10 countries), canola (30 events in 12 countries) and soybean (27 events in 26 countries). The event that has received the most number of approvals is the herbicide tolerant soybean event GTS-40-3-2 (51 approvals in 24 countries + EU-27), followed by the insect resistant maize event MON810 (49 approvals in 23 countries + EU-27) and herbicide tolerant maize event NK603 (49 approvals in 22 countries + EU-27), insect resistant maize event Bt11 (45 approvals in 21 countries + EU-27), insect resistant maize event TC1507 (45 approvals in 20 countries + EU-27), herbicide tolerant maize event GA21 (41 approvals in 19 countries + EU-27), herbicide tolerant soybean event A2704-12 (37 approvals in 19 countries + EU-27), insect resistant maize event MON89034 (36 approvals in 19 countries + EU-27), insect resistant cotton event MON531 (36 approvals in 17 countries + EU-27), herbicide tolerant and insect resistant maize event MON88017 (35 approvals in 19 countries + EU-27), and insect resistant cotton event MON1445 (34 approvals in 15 countries + EU-27).

Global value of biotech seed alone was ~US$15.6 billion in 2013

Global value of biotech seed alone was ~US$15.6 billion in 2013. A 2011 study estimated that the cost of discovery, development and authorization of a new biotech crop/trait is ~US$135 million. In 2013, the global market value of biotech crops, estimated by Cropnosis, was US$15.6 billion, (up from US$14.6 billion in 2012); this represents 22% of the US$71.5 billion global crop protection market in 2012, and 35% of the ~US$45 billion commercial seed market. The estimated global farm-gate revenues of the harvested commercial “end product” (the biotech grain and other harvested products) is more than ten times greater than the value of the biotech seed alone.

Future Prospects

In 2013, as expected, growth continued to plateau for the principal biotech crops in industrial countries and in mature biotech crop markets in developing countries where adoption rates are sustained at an optimal rate of ~90%, leaving little or no room for expansion. Growth in adoption in less mature biotech crop markets in developing countries, such as Burkina Faso (>50% growth in 2013) and Sudan (>300% growth in 2013) was very strong  in 2013, and for the fifth consecutive year, Brazil posted an  impressive 3.7 million hectare increase, equivalent to a 10% growth  between 2012 and  2013.

In the scientific community associated with biotechnology, there is cautious optimism that biotech crops, including both staple and orphan crops, will be increasingly adopted by society, particularly by the developing countries, where the task of feeding its own people is formidable, given that the global population, most of whom will be in the South, will exceed 10 billion by the turn of the century in 2100.

Whereas rice is the most important food crop in China, maize is the most important feed crop. Over 35 million hectares of maize is grown in China by an estimated 100 million maize-growing households (based on 4 per family ~400 million potential beneficiaries). Phytase maize, which confers increased phosphate uptake in animals is reported to increase the efficiency of meat production – an important new and growing need, as China becomes more prosperous and consumes more meat which requires more expensive imports of maize. China has 500 million pigs (~50% of the global swine herd) and 13 billion chickens, ducks and other poultry which need feed. Given the significant increased demand for maize and rising imports, biotech maize, as a feed crop, may be the first to be commercialized by China and is consistent with the favored chronology of fiber, feed and food. A group of over 60 senior scientists in China recently reiterated the strategic importance of commercializing biotech crops to the country and its commitment to ensure safe testing of the products before deployment. Biotech phytase maize was approved for biosafety in China on 27 November 2009. Other maize producing countries in Asia, including Indonesia and Vietnam, have field tested HT/Bt maize and are likely to commercialize in the near-term, possibly by 2015.

Subject to regulation, another very important product for Asia is Golden Rice which should be ready for release to farmers by 2016 in the Philippines. Bangladesh has also assigned high priority to the product. Golden Rice is being developed to address Vitamin A Deficiency which results in ~2.5 million children a year dying with an additional 500,000 becoming permanently blind. Patrick More has opined that denying Golden Rice to malnourished dying children is “a crime against humanity” – the moral imperative for Golden Rice is beyond question.

In the Americas the increased adoption of biotech drought tolerant maize and transfer of this technology to selected countries in Africa will be important, as well as the adoption of the virus resistant bean developed by EMBRAPA in Brazil and scheduled for deployment in 2015. The stacked soybean launched in 2013 is expected to reach high adoption rates in Brazil and some neighboring countries in the near-term.

In Africa there are three countries, South Africa, Burkina Faso and Sudan already successfully commercializing biotech crops and the hope is that several of the seven additional countries currently field testing biotech crops will graduate to commercialization. The early predominant products that will likely feature are the well-tested biotech cotton and maize, and subject to regulatory approval, the very important WEMA drought tolerant maize scheduled for 2017. Hopefully, one of several orphan crops such as the insect resistant cowpea will also be made available in the near-term so that farmers can benefit from them as early as possible.

Whereas biotech crops are considered essential as one element (including non-transgenic genome editing tools such as ZFN [Zinc Finger Nucleases] and TALENs [Transcription Activator-Like Effector Nucleases] to increase precision and speed) in a crop improvement program, they are not a panacea. Adherence to good farming practices such as rotations and resistance management are a must for biotech crops as they are for conventional crops. Finally, it is important to note that more modest annual gains, and continued plateauing, are predicted for the next few years. This is due to the already optimal (>90%) adoption rates for the principal biotech crops in both industrial and developing countries, leaving little or no room for expansion. As more countries approve biotech crops, the potential hectares will grow for medium hectarage crops (such as sugar cane – 25 million hectares) and particularly for larger hectarage crops (such as rice – 163 million hectares, and wheat – 217 million hectares). Increased growth in hectares will also be facilitated by a growing portfolio of products from both the public and private sectors and the events will increasingly feature quality traits for improved health and well-being.