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World cotton production forecast lower
Jul. 8, 2008
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) – an association of 43 countries that produce and consume cotton – has advised that world cotton production in the 2008/09 marketing year could decline 3%, to 117 million bales, which would raise world cotton prices nearly 10 cents per pound.
Much of the decrease will occur in the US, said ICAC, citing the fall of planted acreage by 27% to 9.3 million acres since 2006. China, Brazil, Egypt, Turkey, and Central Asia could see smaller decreases, while India, Australia, the former French colonies in Africa, and Pakistan could show increases.
2008/09 global cotton mill use could decline by 1% to 122 million bales (from 122.9 million in the 2007/08 marketing year ending July 31), the Committee reports, due to projected slower global economic expansion and higher prices of cotton relative to polyester.
Raw cotton exports are expected to increase by 5% to 41 million bales, anticipating larger imports from China.
World cotton stocks are forecast to drop to 51 million bales – a decrease of about 4.7 million bales – with most of the decline again in the US.
The ICAC Secretariat forecasts an increase in the season-average Cotlook A Index from 73 cents per pound in 2007/08 to 82 cents per pound in 2008/09 as exportable supplies in the US and other countries are reduced.
Source: ICAC
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